Yes, 2025 is Looking Like 2023 at the Box Office

Last year, as Hollywood's courtiers in the entertainment press gushed over the successes of Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3 as proof that Hollywood's way of making and marketing movies, called into question by the succession of seemingly sure-fire tentpoles (The Flash, Indiana Jones 5, Captain Marvel 2, etc., etc.) that flopped spectacularly through 2023, had been proven ultimately sound and that that year could be dismissed as if it were no more than a bad dream, it seemed to me that 2024 was the anomaly, a result of there not being so many flopping tentpoles because there were far fewer tentpoles than usual for audiences to reject, whereas 2025 with its crowded release slate would probably end up playing like 2023 that way. And indeed, 2025 has already seen a big, supposedly new-era-of-the-Marvel-Cinematic-Universe Valentine's Day release and a live-action adaptation of a much-loved Disney animated classic both underperform badly--with the Marvel movie supposed to kick off the summer opening less well than hoped. The repetition of the pattern of 2023 is even evident in the year's principal success--an April release based on a hit video game franchise which has not impressed the critics but which definitely excited fans overperforming sensationally. (The folks at Boxoffice Pro projected $55-$75 million opening in its first forecast, through the next three weeks predicted something only marginally higher in the $60-$80 million range and then on the Wednesday before opening weekend only a bit higher than that--$85-$100 million. The movie ended up pulling $163 million in its first three days in North American release--while displaying some staying power its domestic total as of its third weekend was a very respectable $345 million.)

Of course, we are at the time of this writing still less than a third of the way into the year. However, for the time being I see no reason to expect any divergence from the pattern just yet--however much those who have a stake in Hollywood being able to turn a profit delivering the same thing over and over and over again for many more years and therefore sneer at all the painful lessons of 2023 would like to believe otherwise as they cleave to anything that may indicate Tinseltown need only "stay the course" rather than actually make an effort to keep its audience.