Black Panther 2's Third Weekend

As of its third weekend Black Panther 2 has taken in just under $368 million--by all conventional measures, a healthy sum indeed. But this is, again, a case of exceptional expectations--not least, given the response to the original Black Panther.

So how does it compare with the first film at the box office thus far?

At the same point in its release--17 days into its North American run--the first Black Panther had taken in $502 million.

So basically that movie had taken in 72 percent of its total North American gross ($700 million).

Assuming Black Panther 2 to be doing the same then it would be bound for something in the area of $510 million--a little higher than my prediction regarding the high end of the range, but not by much, while I think there is reason to expect that it will not hold up quite as well after this point. The main reason is that Black Panther 2 has had a boost from having two of its first three weekends be holiday weekends, with Thanksgiving coming just two weeks after its opener on Veteran's Day, giving it an upward nudge. As a result the next weekend may see a commensurate dip, enough of one that I still expect the film to finish up below the half billion dollar mark--while, with the overseas gross still likely to fall short of the domestic, this would work out to the film falling short of $1 billion at the global level (as against the $1.4 billion of the first film in 2018, and the $1.6-$1.7 billion to which this works out in today's dollars), with all that implies for the bottom line, and if not the prospect of a Black Panther 3, then at least its likely shape.