How Much Would Captain Marvel 2 Need to Make to be Profitable?

We now hear that Captain Marvel 2's production may have run Disney some $275 million, including $220 million "net" (the part that came from the producer)--a hefty sum, and likely just the beginning where its expenses are concerned. Already $45 million more in current dollars than the first Captain Marvel at that stage of things, Disney's final expenditure on Captain Marvel (what we get counting distribution, promotion, participation, residuals, interest all the way through home entertainment), should we take the Deadline figures about the movie from back in 2020 at face value, came to a little over $450 million (an extra $275 million on top of the $175 million production cost).

Extrapolating from Disney's production cost, this would work out to some $560-$570 million for Captain Marvel 2.

Going by what Deadline has reported about previous films of comparable scale and type, with $560 million spent Disney needs to make at least 55 percent of that sum theatrically--$300 million+--just to cover the rest of the outlay with earnings from streaming, home entertainment, etc.. With the film's backers keeping a bit less than half of the theatrical gross I would not expect the movie to break even much below $650 million grossed worldwide, assuming commensurately strong revenue from the post-theatrical income streams.

At the beginning of this past summer movie season it seemed to me that $700 million was the high end of what the movie could be expected to make--given how Marvel's sequels have underperformed relative to their predecessors, and given how the first Captain Marvel was something of a special event (among other things, coming out mere weeks before the mega-event that was Endgame), making it more likely to suffer the drop of a Black Panther sequel than a Guardians of the Galaxy sequel. Nothing I have seen so far has made me much more optimistic about the movie's earnings prospects. The result is that I can see the movie squeaking by in the most favorable scenario, but not much more (that $1 billion mark still likely to be well out of reach), with underperformance easily translating to losses--losses that, while unhappy for the studio, are unlikely to look very significant next to what it has suffered in the wake of Indiana Jones 5's ignominious reception.