We are hearing $295 million as the price tag for producing Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Given that the total outlay on a film's production, distribution and promotion tends to run two to three times its production budget it seems reasonable to think the complete bill for this already colossal but much-delayed and heavily hyped production will run to $600-$900 million.
Of course, with the film barely out it is harder to make guesses about revenue--but given its opening weekend it seems unlikely to do much better than a half billion dollars, and could easily take in just $400 million (or even less). Assume (optimistically) the studio gets half that $400 million figure--$200 million. Now consider the home entertainment/TV/streaming revenue. At this level movies rarely match their theatrical grosses through these sources, but even in the event that the film achieves that--making another $200 million here--the movie ends up with some $400 million, as against that $600-$900 million outlay. The result is that a shortfall in the $200 million+ range is far from inconceivable, even if the movie avoids a worst-case outcome.
And in the worst-case outcome . . . we could be talking about twice that or more. (After all, $900 million-$400 million=. . . I don't even want to finish that bit of arithemtic.)
All of this makes the movie a strong contender for Deadline's "biggest box office bombs" competition next year--but admittedly just one in what is already proving a field of very strong contenders for the title this year.
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