Indiana Jones 5's First Five Days in Release--and the Upcoming Weekend

As noted here Indiana Jones 5 has had its debut--taking in some $60 million domestically during its first three days, and perhaps $84 million over the first five.

Speculating about the movie's course from here on out one can consider the extremes. Top Gun 2 saw a mere 29 percent drop from its first Friday-to-Sunday period to its second--an extremely rare performance for any major film, but especially for a highly anticipated sequel coming out on a major holiday weekend. By contrast The Flash (while not even coming off a holiday weekend) saw a 73 percent drop.

Boxoffice Pro currently expects the film's performance to fall almost exactly midway between the two extremes, with a 53 percent drop from the first Friday-to-Sunday period to the second, giving it $29 million this coming weekend and boosting its domestic total to nearly $126 million.

This would really not be bad, relatively speaking--almost as good as Guardians of the Galaxy 3 had after its debut (a mere 48 percent drop from a non-holiday weekend). Still, even if the movie managed Guardians of the Galaxy 3 legs and roughly tripled its opening weekend gross this would mean just $180 million in the till. If, going by the first ten days rather than the first weekend, we assumed that the film, like Guardians, managed to make an extra two-thirds atop its $126 million take it would still end up with just $210 million--scarcely touching the low end of the already downwardly revised long-range projection the folks at Boxoffice Pro had offered down to the opening weekend ($211 million).

What about the overseas picture? The last two Indiana Jones films managed a roughly 40/60 domestic/international split, which would work out to a global gross of over a half billion in the circumstances ($525 million). However, the film's first three days saw it take in $70 million internationally, which works out to a rough 46/54 percent domestic/foreign split for the period. In combination with the $210 million domestic total this works out to $450-$460 million taken in globally.

Once more, that is about what Solo made in inflation-adjusted terms. And this is in a relatively optimistic scenario of very decent legs at home and abroad. As I remarked, audiences may be kinder than the critics who saw it first (the situation is quite the reverse of what we saw with Indiana Jones 4 at present), and the competition in the coming weeks is not too strong by the season's usual standards, but we also know that this kind of film is very front-loaded, and that by and large it is depending on the fading nostalgia for the series, limiting its potential. The result is that I suspect that come next Sunday Boxoffice Pro's prediction will prove optimistic--and that even if it does not, barring the movie's legs being not merely Guardians of the Galaxy 3-like, but Top Gun-2 like, it will not make much difference to the film's final fate commercially.*

* Top Gun 2 pulled in 5.7 times its initial Friday-to-Sunday gross, which in the case of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny would work out to an unspectacular but respectable $340 million. Should this go along with the current domestic/foreign split it might have a chance of at least breaking even via revenue from home entertainment, etc.. (With $350 million+ from theatrical rentals, and the equivalent of another 80 percent+ of that from those other revenue streams, the intake would at least be within range of the $600 million that seems likely to be the lowest outlay on the total project going by the formula I discussed here.)