Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Predictions

I was actually more favorably disposed toward Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull than most--quite willing to go along with how insanely over the top it went, the bit with the refrigerator included (after all, the budgets, effects and spectacle action movies offered had been scaled up for two additional decades since the last Indiana Jones film, and the movies had never taken themselves too seriously anyway); to enjoy the transfer of the character to the '50s period setting, and the turn from the old religio-magical themes to the Roswell mythos. In the second hour it admittedly became formulaic, but on the whole it was competently executed--and still more fun than most big summer movies, at any rate, while in the story's taking place on the eve of a space age with which the old world of his adventures could seem to be relegated to the past, and Jones' marrying Marion and becoming a father to Mutt, and maybe even settling into a new "day job," there was some sense of the saga drawing to an end (even if he was holding onto the hat).

Still, if it was a fun enough film that does not mean it was all a fan might have hoped for after two decades--or for that matter, "necessary" somehow, the more in as the title of the third film (The Last Crusade) had previously implied the rounding off of a trilogy with the heroes (literally) riding off into the sunset, with everything best left lying as it was. And if that was the case then (even as seen by, again, someone more favorable to the film than most) there would seem reason for doubt about the prospects of the fifth film in the series, coming your way this June, especially to go by what we have seen happen with old franchises like this one, and what we have heard about this particular film. After all, while we take Indiana Jones' blockbuster status for granted there really aren't a lot of similar movies out there, are there? (Once more: period pieces are a tough sell to American audiences, with this going no less for anachronistic sci-fi stuff like steampunk, "weird Westerns," and the like.) When Raiders of the Lost Ark hit theaters it had the advantage of being a comparative novelty in a less competitive market where really big-budget action movies were fewer, while benefiting from its association with Star Wars at the peak of its cachet (with George Lucas having writer and producer credits, and Harrison Ford's Han Solo barely frozen in carbonite and hauled off by Boba Fett to Jabba's palace), and one might add, a moment when audiences were relatively easier sells on period adventure than they are now. (If the fact seems forgotten now the '70s was a boom period for World War II stuff of this kind, with Ford himself, before fighting the Nazis as Jones, having done so as Lieutenant Colonel Mike Barnsby in the Guns of Navarone sequel Force 10 From Navarone, and Army Air Force Lieutenant David Halloran in Hanover Street--neither a great hit admittedly, but still testifying to the fact of that fashion, and perhaps to audiences having been prepared to see Ford in a period piece, just as, one might add, the disappointment that was his later Cowboys & Aliens can seem to suggest the opposite.)

Of course, having been such a big success then gives it a boost such as a freshly-launched franchise would not enjoy--but Hollywood has time and again run into the ground the biggest of '80s successes, as demonstrated by the Rambo, Die Hard and Terminator franchises, with the post-Bob Iger Star Wars showing that no franchise is immune. If it can happen to Star Wars, it can certainly happen to that other Lucas-Ford franchise, Indy, whose grosses were already trending downward in the '80s, with the fourth film no break from the pattern. While at the North American box office it made the most in current dollars--over $317 million, as against Raiders of the Lost Ark's $212 million, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade's $197 million, and Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom's $179 million--adjusting the figures for inflation (certainly if one uses the Consumer Price Index to get the values in 2022 dollars) produces a very different result*:

Raiders of the Lost Ark--$687 million

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom--$510 million

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade--$468 million

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull--$434 million

One may add that the pattern has held, more or less, at the international level--a fact especially worth remembering when one considers how much the opportunity to multiply the domestic gross has expanded.

Raiders of the Lost Ark--$390 million ($1.263 billion in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom--$333 million ($944 million in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade--$474 million ($1.123 billion in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull--$791 million ($1.08 billion)

Only Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom was outdone by its successor (in which it may well have been that that film's particularly dark tone was a factor). It is worth considering, too, that as the grosses went down the budgets went up, in nominal to say nothing of "real" prices.

Raiders of the Lost Ark--$18 million ($58 million in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom--$28 million ($79 million in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade--$48 million ($114 million in 2022 dollars)

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull--$185 million ($253 million in 2022 dollars)

If one goes by the rule of thumb that a movie released today may need a gross of four to five times its production budget in order to turn a profit in its theatrical run then, frankly, Indy 4 looks pretty marginal compared to the far-cheaper Raiders, a factor that may well have played into the very long wait for the fifth film--a wait that in turn likely affected its prospects negatively. When it has been fifteen years since the last Indiana Jones film--and that one, which was not too well-loved by audiences, came nineteen years after the preceding film (such that its original appearance is unremembered by anyone under forty)--one may have doubts about just how much the "nostalgia" factor so critical to making a movie like this one a hit will work in its favor. This may be more problematic still in the foreign markets where Indiana Jones films are moderately good but not great earners (internationally the last two films made about one-and-a-half times their domestic gross, rather than two or more times as much the way Marvel and Avatar movies do), and will have a handicap at the outset in Indy Jones 5 reportedly not playing in China, to absolutely no one's surprise. (Ford has publicly supported Tibetan independence, which, of course, has not pleased Beijing.)

So in short: the movie's being a tougher product to sell than it looks given its period character, the long downward trend in the grosses (as the budgets keep going up), and the likely waning of the nostalgia that might help it (and internationally, the possibility of its exclusion from China), will cut against any new Indiana Jones film at the box office, even before we get to the specific movie at hand. We have here hints that James Mangold of Logan fame may do for Indiana Jones with this one what he did for the X-Men--a gamble which, divisive if ultimately successful there, seems considerably less likely to pay off here (while Mangold's assurances that Indy 5 will not play like his Wolverine movie may not necessarily be persuasive to everyone). The reports of disastrous test screenings, denied but so far as I can tell not debunked, do not augur well for it. And some may well see other creative decisions as . . . unpromising. (Few figures in the world of entertainment have had the benefit of so much claquing-until-you-are-sick-of-hearing-about-them this past decade as Phoebe Waller-Bridge, and I do not doubt that those who, for whatever reason, responded to Killing Eve and Fleabag with unhinged, critical-reaction-to-Sopranos-like paroxysms of praise are delighted to see her prominently cast in the movie, those not sharing their opinions about life, the universe and everything will . . . feel differently. Moreover, while the professional "anti-woke" brigade have, as usual, made their position very clear, they are unlikely to be wholly alone in their reservations about this decision--all as one may remember that the last time Waller-Bridge was in a Lucasfilm project it was . . . Solo.)

In light of all that I am not bullish on this one. Indeed, I think Indy 5 will be the movie that reduces Indiana Jones from the tiny and ultra-exclusive club of "absolute, inarguable, classic, totally failure-proof franchise" to "just another movie franchise" (like Star Wars had become in 2017-2019) and maybe even "franchise old people see mainly out of nostalgia" (like the James Bond films have seemed to be, especially after the Waller-Bridge co-scripted No Time to Die--yes, there she is again!), because in contrast with all those years in which it finished the year at the top (Raiders was #1 in the U.S. in its year, Temple of Doom #3, Last Crusade and even Crystal Skull both #2, with their global standing usually at least as good), others will have clearly outdone it globally and even domestically. This will be all the more the case insofar as, given the colossal budget behind the film (we are hearing figures in the range of $300 million tossed about), even a billion dollars grossed could still leave the backers in the red at the end of the theatrical run, and anxiously awaiting accompanying and subsequent revenues' adding up simply to the break-even point. (And, again, nobody goes into business to "break even!") And even if I do not expect to see it fall so low as Solo did (in today's terms, a catastrophically low $450 million), I would not be shocked by a mere $800 million or even $700 million taken in globally at the end of the run--which would put another crater-sized hole in Disney's already hole-riddled books.

* Save for the data on Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade's global box office gross (gleaned from The Hollywood Reporter), and the information on Dial of Destiny's budget, all budgetary and box office figures were derived from the Boxofficemojo.com web site.