Will Disney Lose Money on Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?

The reported cost of producing Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is in the $300 million range--and in the absence of specific information about product placement, subsidies, etc., I am going to go with that as the starting point.

Going by the rule of thumb that a movie breaking even on the theatrical run (not on the movie, with all its added revenue streams, some of which may have already kicked in--e.g. the sell-off of various rights, but just the theatrical run) may require up to five times its production budget some $1.5 billion may be required in the most pessimistic scenario.

My guess as to the film's earnings prospects are that, should it perform in line with the prior Indiana Jones films (granted, this is less certain given that it has been fifteen change-filled years) we could expect it to take in about $400 million domestic and $600 million internationally for a billion dollar total--with a 25 percent margin of error and the movie's falling below the mark more likely than its overshooting it. The result is $1.25 billion would be a very strong performance indeed, $1 billion more likely, and $700-$800 million easy enough to picture--while I will add that, even if I think it unlikely, I do not wholly rule out a Solo-like collapse. (After all, it was what happened the last time that the studio put out "Han Solo" in summer with Phoebe Waller-Bridge for a sidekick--though more seriously the movie would seem to have many a strike against its matching its predecessor.)

The result is that it is quite possible for the movie to be a money-loser at that stage of the game, at least where the theatrical run is concerned--with all that spells for other revenue sources, and the continued salience of the franchise, for which there indeed seem to have been plans. All of this would seem to suggest additional holes in the Disney balance sheet--which is already pretty hole-filled these days, though in fairness I doubt anyone else in the industry could say otherwise after years of pandemic-battered moviegoing and the unhinged spending on for-streaming content.