After Ant-Man 3 How Does the Rest of the Year Look for Marvel?

In the wake of the letdown of the Marvel Cinematic Universe's Phase 4, the opening act of Phase 5 proved . . . something of another letdown for Marvel Studios. As of its seventh weekend in global play (this one went worldwide at the outset, and China was included, so that's not an excuse this time) it has taken in a mere $212 million in North America, and $261 million overseas. Looking at the numbers (a mere $1.2 million added in the last weekend) I feel confident in saying it will fall well short of the $220 million mark domestically at the close of its run (think more like $216 million or so), and of the half billion dollar mark globally, that had still seemed within the range of possibility just a few weeks ago. It is a grave disappointment by comparison with even the preceding Ant-Man 2 (which scored just under $260 million domestic and $750 million global when one adjusts 2018's dollars for today's prices), let alone the higher expectations some held out for this film. (A mere month before Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania's release Screen Rant's Cooper Hood predicted a billion-dollar take--more than twice what the third Ant-Man will actually collect in theaters.)

What are the chances of Marvel's subsequent 2023 releases brightening the picture?

To be frank, not very good. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 does have that first big May weekend, and while I personally liked the Guardians better than most of the other Marvel series', box office-wise they are, again, more Thor than Avengers. Moreover, whatever the merits of the third entry it is hard to picture anything that will make it go much bigger this late in its run. On the contrary, I see no reason to expect it to be immune to Marvel's broader erosion, such that, even with higher ticket prices, making the billion dollar mark will be a challenge. Meanwhile the upcoming The Marvels, while if following up a genuine billion-dollar hit in Captain Marvel, is a sequel to a movie that may have been relatively divisive for audience, while it looks to have a big tie-in with a Disney Plus TV series that not everyone will have watched--an approach which may have been a liability with Dr. Strange 2. (One may also wonder what to make of the movie's getting kicked down the road from July to what may be a less harshly competitive spot in November--the more in as we hear of a need for extra time in "post-production.") And again, there is that broader Marvel erosion. The result is that it is not difficult to picture the movie doing less well than the original Captain Marvel, maybe a good deal less well, such that even the bullish Screen Rant predicted a take in the $950 million range--in real terms, almost a quarter of the way down from the over $1.3 billion that Captain Marvel took in when one adjusts its gross for 2022 dollars, and again, less than that seeming very plausible (even if I see no reason yet to expect an Ant-Man 3-like collapse).

Of course, there will be two other Marvel movies--the follow-up to the animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Across the Spider-Verse), and Kraven the Hunter. Still, selling animated action to American audiences (rather than family-oriented musical comedy) is tough, and the first movie, if reasonably judged a hit, fell short of the $400 million mark globally, making it a different kind of product operating at a different level, even if it ends up being a success. Meanwhile Kraven the Hunter is another project ultimately based on a relatively minor Spider-Man villain, with discussion comparing it not to Spider-Man but to Venom--such that, even if it succeeds, it will be in a different way and on a different scale. The result is that were Guardians and the Marvels to do badly at the box office these films, even if overperforming, would not plausibly represent salvation for the MCU in anything like its current form.