Indiana Jones 5's Second Weekend Box Office Gross

Looking at Boxoffice Pro's estimate for the second weekend take of Indiana Jones 5 (a 53 percent drop to $28.6 million) I thought their figures overoptimistic--and indeed they were. But not by much. With a 56 percent drop and $26.5 million collected this weekend the gross was down only 7 percent from their prediction--leaving Indiana Jones with $121 million grossed domestically in its first ten days. On that level, at least, the film has avoided the kind of first-to-second weekend collapse seen with films like Ant-Man 3 (70 percent) or The Flash (73 percent) but, apart from the indignity of already having been knocked down to #2 at the box office (and that not by another blockbuster but a low-cost horror movie), at the same time proved itself far from leggy (to return to the analogy some drew, no Top Gun 2, and not even a Guardians of the Galaxy 3).*

It will be a long road toward $200 million domestically--too long, I think. (Guardians of the Galaxy-like legs--an extra two-thirds above its ten day take--would let it get there. Ant-Man 3-like legs over the longer haul--just a quarter more--would give it more like $150 million. For now my guess is the movie's ending up somewhere in between, if a little closer to Guardians. Call it about what it would get if the week-to-week drops held to 50 percent, $180 million.) Meanwhile, in contrast with the 40/60 domestic/foreign split on the prior Indiana Jones films the movie's take is currently more like 49/51 percent. (Extrapolating from the $180 million figure it would end up with $370 million or so.)

Still, even if the film does a good deal better than that it would be far from profitable--the anticipation of a Solo-like (or worse) collapse still dismayingly borne out.

* Top Gun 2 saw its Friday-to-Sunday gross slide a mere 29 percent, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 48 percent, from its first to its second weekend.