What Ever Happened to Transformers: Rise of the Beasts at the Box Office?

Back in early May I got in my two cents on Transformers: Rise of the Beasts' box office prospects. My guess, based on the performance of prior films in the once mighty but long declining franchise, and the reported tracking, was a range of $300-$450 million for the global take.

Of course, expectations regarding the film turned upward, and its opening weekend saw the movie overperform a bit--take in $61 million (where the predictions had figured mid-50s, tops). It was a win--but only a small one, as the somewhat stronger-than-expected opening was not followed by commensurately good holds, the decline afterward pretty typical for a front-loaded sequel. The drop from the first weekend to the second was 67 percent--and as of its fourth weekend had only $136 million grossed domestically.

Meanwhile the movie's overseas run was less sensational than for previous Transformers films. Where Transformers 4 and 5, and Bumblebee, tripled and quadrupled their domestic take internationally, Transformers: Rise of the Beasts has not quite doubled it, such that the global total stands at well under $400 million at last check ($381 million), with not much further to go (Japan the last major market in which it as yet to open). As things stand I still expect it to finish well within the range I predicted, which seems to me a significant problem for a reported $200 million production--enough of one to possibly mean a major loss for its studio as, reportedly, it plans to proceed with the sequel.