Top Gun 3 is More of a Gamble Than the Commentariat Realizes

We are hearing now that Top Gun 3 is in the works.

Back in the summer of 2022 this looked like an obvious move.

It looks less obvious now.

Why is that?

The simple answer is that where back in 2022 it seemed that franchise action films were doing as well as ever on the whole, and leading the recovery, we have watched them underperform severely, and indeed flop, flop and flop again through 2023 across the whole range of film genres--superheroes, spy-fi, you name it. The films of Tom Cruise have not been excepted from the pattern, with Mission: Impossible 7, in spite of initially strong expectations (bolstered by the good will that Top Gun 2 seemed to have garnered him), proving a low point for the franchise commercially (in real terms, a weaker earner than 2006's ill-fated Mission: Impossible 3).*

In considering that the going may have got a lot rougher for movies of this kind it is worth remembering that, even if Top Gun 2 might have been a hit in other circumstances, that it was such an extreme outlier (a $700 million hit domestically and $1.5 billion globally post-pandemic, success that seems virtually magical right now) was due to the very special conditions of its release. While no one else seems inclined to acknowledge the fact, it mattered greatly that the movie came out with the media cheer-leading for it breathlessly, as it faced very limited competition in theaters compared to most summers (very few other action movies playing in the summer of 2022).

Moreover, the movie was in the view even of many viewers favorably disposed to it substantially a do-over of the original--a thing they were ready to forgive after thirty-six years, but which simply will not work with another sequel coming so soon after the second film, while just continuing things also will not be easy, the more in as so many take the two films as bookends to "Maverick" Mitchell's career (with the original depicting rebellious young Mitchell making his mark, and Top Gun 2 showing the matured leader Mitchell leading one last mission and moving on). Trying to come up with something that will not feel like a cheap do-over for the sake of a cash grab to the fans, while still feeling connected with the preceding films is a much, much taller order than those who made Top Gun 2 had to fulfill, one with which Hollywood has consistently shown itself to have a hard time. (Cheap imitation is just what they do--as that second Top Gun movie, again, showed.)

So any Top Gun 3 will be hitting a much tougher market, not just with regard to audience receptiveness to this kind of movie generally, but this film franchise specifically, and the level of competition the movie is likely to face in any major release date. Moreover, —it is worth remembering here that the margin of profitability here may differ from that of even most big-budget films. Those attentive to the figures published by Deadline about the movie's box office performance may recall the exceptionally high bill for participations and residuals--$315 million, close to twice the cost of the production ($177 million). This took a very big bite out of the profits indeed, and if the money was so good that this still left the movie the second most profitable of 2022 (after only Avatar 2) the money men have to think about such things when they consider the prospects of a Top Gun 3.

All of this probably still leaves Top Gun 3 about as safe a bet on a big-budget franchise as can be hoped for these days when even the runners of the James Bond series, the Star Wars franchise, even the Marvel Cinematic Universe are squeamish to the point of stalled--but, again, that is a long way from how things seemed a year ago, and a reminder of just how much the cinematic market has changed these past few years.

* Mission: Impossible 7 made $568 million, against the $600 million or so Mission: Impossible 3 made in inflation-adjusted terms back in 2006.