Will Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Lose Money?

The film's production budget has been reported as $168 million. I do not know whether this is supposed to be net or gross--whether it includes or excludes subsidy defraying the studio's actual expenditure. However, not unreasonably assuming that this is what the studio spent, going by the old formula it suggests a final outlay of at least twice that to be made up before the film breaks even, or some $340 million. The movie likely needs to make at least 55 percent of that theatrically, which comes to $190 million in theatrical revenues, which would require a global gross of some $380 million.

How much of the way has the movie gone toward that mark?

Well, after its first four days in release the film has pulled in just $25 million domestically in its first three days, and $31 million in its first four.

The first Mad Max movie made 3.4 times its domestic opening weekend gross ($45 million) over its longer run in North America ($154 million), and 2.5 times its domestic gross globally ($380 million), or 8.5 times its opening weekend gross. Optimistically applying that formula we get a worldwide gross in the vicinity of $210 million. Even if we go by the four-day opening as a basis (which I think would be generous to a fault), we only get to $250 million. Working out to "rentals" of $125 million, and perhaps the equivalent of 80 percent of that from post-theatrical revenues on top of this, this comes to revenue of $225 million--some $115 million short of the $340 million+ the movie probably needs.

The result is that at this stage of things there would seem rather a yawning gap between what Furiosa would have to make to break even, never mind become profitable, and what it seems likely to make barring an extraordinary improvement in audience response--instead of good legs, really extraordinary ones, and a Fast-and-Furious-like balance of the international to the domestic gross over that longer run. In fact, the possibility of a $100 million+ loss suggests the movie may have as good a shot at making Deadline's list of biggest box office flops come April 2025 as anything released so far this year--though it is also the case that this year is young, and many bigger movies seem likely to have receptions no better than this before New Year's Day.