Chewing Over Film Grosses: A Few Thoughts

Those inclined to argue over the commercial success or failure of particular films are much more inclined to do so when a film is fairly high-profile (who would notice it otherwise); when people feel they have reason to care about why a commercial endeavor that does not affect their lives at all one way or the other performs in the marketplace; and when there is room for disagreement about how well it has done.

Last summer Deadpool was most certainly a high-profile film. And I think that a good many people were interested in how it would do--partly because it was the first really big superhero film of the year, and especially the first big Marvel movie after the catastrophe that was Captain Marvel 2. Still, the general run of opinion became overwhelmingly bullish about this one early on, and only got more so, as weeks in advance of release the tracking data suggested a $200 million+ opening weekend, to which expectation the film lived up fully, as it went on to absolutely unambiguous success. Tripling its opening weekend domestic gross to collect over $600 million in North America, and making still more than that internationally, it broke the billion dollar barrier no superhero film had managed to do since 2021's Spider-Man: No Way Home, became the most successful film in not just the Deadpool series but the X-Men franchise when we consider the matter in "real," inflation-adjusted terms, the highest-grossing live-action movie of the year in North America, a sure maker of a colossal profit (I would be shocked to see it outside the top five on Deadline's list next year), and a movie that would have been a big win for Marvel even before the pandemic let alone in the depressed situation that followed it, all in spite of the handicap of its "R" rating and its "edgy" and "cult" interest. Given the fan base for both Deadpool and Wolverine many were thrilled to see the movie become so--but as there was really no grounds whatsoever for disputing its being a major success, and so nothing for its admirers (or detractors) to argue about on that level.

By contrast a movie like the one that came out just a week earlier, Twisters, left those interested in these matters with a lot more to consider. It was a high-profile movie--and the media's politicizing it (however unpersuasively) likely got some to care more about how it did than they otherwise would have. At the same time the movie grossed a quarter of a billion dollars domestically, which looks impressive, especially these days--but that is just half what the first film managed when you adjust for inflation, while its ticket sales were weak internationally. With the movie's global take thus $370 million it was easy to see a movie that reportedly cost over $150 million to produce and much more to market failing to make its money back in theaters and, depending on how the post-theatrical earnings played out, being at best marginally profitable, and perhaps a modest loser, even as much of the press talked it up as a big hit. The result was that if far fewer people were interested in the movie than in Deadpool the combination of politicization, uncertainty and a very challengeable media narrative left those who are prone to talk about these things with a lot more to chew over.