Boxoffice Pro Revises its Numbers for Captain Marvel 2 (aka The Marvels) Downward (Again)

Whatever one makes of The Flash as a film it was in commercial terms the worst flop of the summer--a $300 million movie that finished its worldwide theatrical run with a mere $271 million grossed. Constituting outright collapse for the DCEU franchise of which it is a part, the flopping of franchise film after franchise film over the summer (Fast and Furious, Indiana Jones, Mission: Impossible) had me wondering if Captain Marvel 2 (The Marvels) might not similarly be a moment of Flash-like collapse for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). Two weeks ago Boxoffice Pro's first long-range forecast including the film confirmed the impression, with an estimate of $121-$189 million for the film's domestic run, the low end of the range only marginally better than what The Flash picked up in North America ($108 million).

Still, bad as that was I remembered all too well how many of the year's underperformers saw their prospects decay between that first long-range forecast and their opening weekend--and while last week's forecast edged downward only marginally (2 percent they said) this week's forecast showed a significant dip. The publication's projection for the film's run is now $109 million-$169 million, a significant drop from the already low figure of two weeks before that leaves the low end of the range almost exactly at what The Flash managed, and we still have two weeks to go, during which a lot could change--possibly for the better, but perhaps also for the worse. At that same point, two weeks from release, Boxoffice Pro was projecting a $208-$322 million gross for The Flash, meaning that they expected the movie would make at worst twice and perhaps three times what it actually ended up making.

Were The Marvels to underperform similarly relative to its own two-weeks-before-release projection the movie would make $55-60 million, not on opening weekend, but over its entire run, ending up with half what The Flash grossed domestically--without necessarily doing better abroad. In that case my earlier projection of $250-$500 million, which had already been revised downward from an earlier figure that was not all that great, would seem overoptimistic.

This is a really extreme scenario, of course. But the point is that this is how badly that movie crashed and burned this year, such that it cannot be wholly ruled out.

Still, at the other end of the spectrum of possibility there is the possibility of people who see the film actually liking it. After all, hits these days seem to be less front-loaded than they used to be--in part because the usual claquing may be less effective (it sure fell flat with The Flash), but perhaps also because people are less intent on heading out on opening weekend, with other people actually finding a film worthwhile getting them out there on those later weekends as we have seen time and again this year.

Consider what that might mean for the current anticipation of a $45-$67 million opening weekend (especially as just as things could get much worse, there is no guarantee that they will). Should the film manage to, in spite of this weak debut, end up displaying the kind of staying power that Elemental did--more than quintupling its gross--the film would make $235-$350 million domestically. If the international markets respond similarly (within a situation where the final take adheres to the 38/62 domestic/international split seen with the original Captain Marvel) this would work out to a gross in the vicinity of $930 million at the high end of the range, a near-billion dollar hit exceeding anything the MCU has achieved since Dr. Strange 2 (and every really comparable movie since Avatar 2), while even at the low end of the range the movie would make $600 million+, at least bringing the movie within striking distance of breaking even.

For my part I can picture the performance shifting downward more easily than I can picture it moving upward--but I also think that some caution is increasingly in order about assuming too much on the basis of an opening weekend. Between the two I will, for now, stick with my prior projection of $250-$500 million for the worldwide gross, if with the low end looking that much more likely after this latest report.