Captain Marvel 2's Chances in Theaters: An Update

Some time ago I suggested that just as the DCEU suffered a collapse at the box office with The Flash, Captain Marvel 2 could be the same kind of disaster for Marvel. Last week's tracking-based estimates from Boxoffice Pro seemed to affirm that, with Flash-like numbers (an opening in the $50-$75 million range, as a movie that might have been expected to take in $700 million pulled in, at the low end of their projection, $121 million--as against The Flash's $108 million).

Of course, there was at the time still a month to go and I wondered if the numbers might not shift significantly. We had seen the estimates for Barbie and Oppenheimer, for example, rise greatly in the month before the release of both those films--while in release both movies considerably overtopped the expectations held for them on the very eve of their openings. However, other films have seen the expectations for their ticket sales plummet in those same weeks--as was the case with, for example, The Flash and Indiana Jones and Mission: Impossible 7. And to be frank Captain Marvel 2 looks more like these as a big-budget action-adventure franchise film of the kind that has run into so much trouble lately. The result is that I have had my eye on the week-to-week fluctuations.

As it happens, there was not much movement since last week--a 2 percent drop one could dismiss as a "rounding error." Still, it was not the upward movement, let alone the significant upward movement, those hoping the film will be a hit must want to see--who will have to find consolation in there still being almost three weeks to go, and the fact that after that the speculation ends and the moviegoers themselves will make the only commercial judgment on the film that counts in the end.