Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Three Weeks to Go--and the Box Office Forecasts Keep Falling

Last week Boxoffice Pro's range for the opening weekend of Indiana Jones 5 was in the $81-$111 million range. This went along with an expectation of a final domestic box office gross of $225-$380 million.

This week Boxoffice Pro's prediction is an opening weekend in the $76-$105 million range--with a commensurately lowered long-range forecast of $211-$359 million.

Relatively speaking the drop is minor--some $5 million or so on the opening weekend, $15-$20 million over the longer run (or 5-7 percent of what may seem very large totals). But it is a movement in the wrong direction from the standpoint of the backers--and a sign of perhaps worse to come, when what was predicted was already bad enough.

As I put it last week, the $1 billion global gross was already a declining possibility (fading for it as they previously faded for those other Disney releases this summer, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 and The Little Mermaid); $700 million a middle-of-the-range performance that would leave it the lowest-performing film in its series by a long way in real terms; and the possibility of Solo-like collapse, which was on my mind from the start of my thinking about this movie's chances back in April, an ever-rising prospect.

Does Disney have any plan whatsoever for salvaging the situation? As I have remarked previously, the Cannes premiere, the early reviews and spoiler leaks, have hurt the film's chances, while limiting Disney's options for publicity in the remaining weeks. But if the studio has a surprise in mind . . . well, there just isn't much time left for them to spring it on us.

We will just have to see what the next three weeks bring--though I doubt very many are holding their breath.