Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Just One Day to Go Before it Hits Theaters (A Note on the Latest Opening Weekend Projection)

Boxoffice Pro has just put out its projection for this coming weekend--and along with the usual projection for three-day Friday-to-Sunday period, also one for the five-day Friday-to Tuesday period created by the long holiday weekend we will get as a result of Independence Day falling on a Tuesday this year.

Of course, the big story here is what Indiana Jones 5 will make. As it happens the range for the weekend now stands at $60-$77 million--which means that the ceiling for the film is now below the floor in Boxoffice Pro's first tracking-based projection four weeks ago ($81-$111 million), which itself had reflected expectations none too high to begin with.*

Their best guess seems to be that the movie will take in something in the middle of that range--$70 million, with all that implies for the Solo-caliber or worse catastrophe scenario I have been discussing here for quite some time.* (And of course, should the prediction of a $70 million gross prove overoptimistic as it just did for The Flash, well, the consequences of that need no enlargement here.)

Is there any hope at all for Indiana Jones 5 avoiding that outcome? I see little--but not nothing. One possible glimmer of hope is that as more critics have seen the film the overall response has become a bit more favorable--the Rotten Tomatoes score risen from 50 to 66 percent. Admittedly that is still not very impressive, with the more favorable later reviews possibly just a matter of people saying "Well, it's not that bad." But it is something a little more positive than what we heard before, especially should it betoken audiences proving a little more generous, and maybe good word-of-mouth bringing more viewers in subsequent weeks--and the film having sufficiently decent legs to make the film's final take merely a disappointment rather than a disaster. Still, I have to admit that, especially given what is known about the content of the movie itself (The Super Mario Bros. Movie defied the critics to become a mega-hit, but this just does not look like that kind of crowd-pleaser), and the way in which the summer has been going, I would not expect too much.

* In real terms even $70 million is half of what Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull pulled in back in 2008 (about $140 million in May 2023 dollars).