The Little Mermaid: Box Office Gross: The Fifth Weekend--and the Upcoming Sixth

During the run of The Little Mermaid some analysts found it useful to compare the film's domestic run to that of 2019's Aladdin--the next-to-last of Disney's animated-classic-to-live-action adaptations, which likewise came out Memorial Day, and I have tended to use the comparison (in current, not real, dollars) as part of my basis for making calculations about the film's likely gross.

As it happened The Little Mermaid opened a little stronger--with $95.6 million taken in in its first three days, and $118.8 million in its first four, as against $91.5 million and $116.8 million in the case of Aladdin. The result was the hope that, if the movie was already falling short of expectations domestically (to say nothing of internationally) it could overtop, or at least match, Aladdin's $356 million gross--which, even with the dollar worth a fifth less than it had been in 2019, would not look too shabby.

Alas, the gap between the two movies (again, without bothering with inflation) has steadily widened--and not in the new film's favor. Where The Little Mermaid was running almost 4.5 percent ahead of Aladdin at the end of the first three days, my extrapolations from the data have its lead down to 0.8 percent by the second weekend and turning increasingly negative afterward--1.5 percent lower by the third weekend, 4.2 percent by the fourth, and 6.4 percent by the fifth, when it had $270 million grossed, as against Aladdin's nearly $289 million.

In short, the film's opening a little bigger (even if it was just in current dollars) has been more than offset by its faster fade at the box office, which seems likely to continue this weekend. Boxoffice Pro anticipates the movie making a mere $4.4 million over the Friday-to-Sunday period, which would leave it with just under $280 million banked--as against the almost $307 million Aladdin had, widening the gap from 6.4 to 8.7 percent.

Previously considering the film my guess had been that its final gross would be in the range of $300-$350 million. At the current rate I still expect it to break past $300 million, but the faster fade makes its getting anywhere near $350 million a long shot now. Instead I think even $325 million out of reach, the lower half of the $300-$350 million range where it will end up.*

Meanwhile the international markets continue to offer little succor--the $230 million taken there to date amounting to just 46 percent of the global gross. Getting it past the half billion dollar mark (and thus into the $500-$700 million range I earlier anticipated), I would guess that if this does not improve the film's final take will be in the $550-$600 million range. Even by the lowered standard of a month ago it is not the happiest outcome that could have been anticipated for the film.

* Aladdin made 86 percent of its money by the sixth weekend. Should The Little Mermaid be at the same point in its trajectory after taking in $280 million as of Sunday one could expect $325 million when it finishes up--but the faster fade means one should assume it to have pulled in more than Aladdin had at the same point.