2026 at the Box Office: Is it 2023 All Over Again?

As I have been saying for years now 2023 was a very revealing year where the shape of the North American box office was concerned, specifically confirming that the "post-pandemic" box office is structurally much smaller than it was before the pandemic (per capita ticket sales down from 3-4 to just 2 a year); would have rather less casual movie going of the kind that helped power so many franchise films to billion-dollar grosses (by bringing out more than the hardcore fans); that the release of a pre-pandemic-style slate of big-budget movies in the new market would result in a number of underperformers comparable to what we saw in that disastrous year (the year of The Marvels, the year of The Flash); and that the winners likely to be more carefully targeted films to which a lazy, risk-shy Hollywood is generally averse (as Barbie triumphed where The Marvels failed, Oppenheimer where The Flash did). It also seemed to me that 2024 and 2025 validated that reading of the situation, and that given what we knew of the year's slate of movies 2026 only promised a repeat.

Still, I have to admit myself a bit surprised by just how closely 2026 has followed after the pattern of 2023 in respects. Once again the year had a lift at its beginning from an Avatar sequel, and at Easter saw the release of an Illumination Studios Super Mario Bros. animated movie that, while reviled by critics, may well prove the year's biggest earner--after which things went south. Once again we have seen franchise films flop one after another through the summer, in many cases the same franchises in the same ways, with Disney seeing a Lucasfilm franchise-based film and a live-action adaptation of a prior animated hit (with a nautical theme!) both underperform (Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and Moana in place of Indiana Jones 5 and The Little Mermaid). Once again we have seen a DCEU superhero film and a kulturkampfer-hated female-led superhero film flop big time (with Supergirl pulling double-duty for The Flash and The Marvels). Once again we have Christopher Nolan coming to the rescue with what would conventionally seem a rather unlikely blockbuster in its period setting and other ways in late July (with The Odyssey filling in for Oppenheimer). And once again in spite of such bright spots we have a movie season, and a cinematic year, on track to merely repeat the depressing post-pandemic pattern of big-budget failure and all-around lower grossers, with the fact that the summer season of 2023 is so much like the summer season of 2026 testament to the fact that if Hollywood has shown itself prepared to adapt in small ways (reining in its spending, taking a new interest in video game adaptations, etc.) it remains as rigid as ever in the big, still committed to the blockbuster model of filmmaking whose day it refuses to acknowledge as done because it finds the obvious alternative of actually putting in an effort so unpalatable.

Not that that's what you'll read if you pay attention to the entertainment press. At present they are pushing the narrative that this time, for reals, it's a year of recovery, with Hollywood looking at possibly having its "first $10 billion box office since 2019." Their claims are not wholly baseless, given that the box office took in $4.7 billion in the first six months of the year (as against the $4.1 billion of the prior year), such that if the pattern were to continue, with a little help from the various franchise films from which the Hollywood Establishment hopes for much (besides Spider-Man, also Dune, Jumanji and The Avengers, among others), yes, they might make $10 billion. However, they entirely overlook how if a good sound bite a $10 billion box office year is no sign of return to the pre-pandemic box office. After all, in the late '10s, with the norm grosses in the $11-$12 billion range, $10 billion would have been a bitter disappointment, even before (going by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index) inflation meant that the 2015-2019 norm was more like $15 billion in today's terms--this the mark that would really mean a return to pre-pandemic norms. Indeed, as the mathematically literate know full well, because of inflation a $10 billion gross in 2026 would only equal what Hollywood made in that disastrous year of 2023 I have been talking about--its $8.9 billion box office, because of those price rises, at least $9.7 billion in June 2026 dollars (all as, certainly to go by the priorities of those in charge, we have six more inflationary months ahead of us). The result is that rather than happy days being here again the post-pandemic/forever COVID box office would remain with us, with 2026's improvement over 2025, in its simply matching 2023's take, merely bespeaking the lowering of the bar, as it suggests the high end of the range of fluctuation of the market amid the "new normal."

All as, of course, that $10 billion is not yet actually in the till. With nearly five months left to go at this point, with the underperformance of franchise films of the expected types having continued through this year (I say again, Star Wars, DCEU, Disney animation-to-live-action); all as some of the franchise films up ahead seem like quite the gamble (2025 was a reminder that the Marvel Cinematic Universe ain't what it used to be as a box office draw, and Dune 3 a tougher sell as a mass-audience hit than its predecessors); one would be naïve to rule out the studios meeting with any more nasty surprises in 2026--such that come January the entertainment press may be telling a very different story.