How Will Disney's Wish Do at the Box Office? Some Thoughts

NOTE: This post was completed on the basis of the information available in late October. While it has dated slightly I have decided to go ahead and post it.

Animated films have done well at the box office these past couple of years--with the latest Despicable Me franchise movie (Minions: The Rise of Gru) the biggest success of 2022 after only Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2; the follow-up to the animated Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. (Beyond the Spider-Verse) not only nearly doubling the original's gross but also outgrossing every live-action superhero movie at the box office thus far this year; and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, for all the critical sneers, to the first half of this year what Barbie has been to the second, one of the rare billion-dollar plus hits carrying the box office.

Alas, that traditional king of animation Disney has had little share in this success, with 2022 seeing Lightyear and Strange World among their year's biggest flops (Strange World losing $200 million by itself to win the dubious honor of biggest flop, according to Deadline). This year's Elemental did better--though if it is looking to be profitable in the end it is a long way from the kind of success that Disney took so much for granted for so long.

One can thus picture Disney looking to its next big animated feature, Wish, for relief, especially given the higher than usual stakes--the movie intended as a 100 year anniversary film and homage to its near century-old tradition of big animated movies.

So just how well is it likely to do?

Boxoffice Pro's first long-range forecast including Wish has the movie making $45-$65 million on its opening weekend of domestic play and perhaps quadrupling that over the longer run to $185-$289 million (given the legs such a movie could have over the holidays). The low end of the range can seem worrisome, especially if the unspectacular domestic gross is matched by a Little Mermaid-like international response. However, should the movie have the benefit of a merely healthy international response even with just a mid-range performance Wish, if not all that might be hoped for from a 100th anniversary event, or even a run-of-the-mill Disney release, could be a moneymaker in the end--while it would do still better than that should it perform at the high end of the range and get an Elemental-like international response. Were the near $300 million gross that now seems within the range of the possible was doubled or better internationally (as was the case with Elemental) Disney would be within range of a billion dollars. Of course, even if it crosses that line some will compare it unfavorably to other films that had made still more than that--like Frozen 2's $1.45 billion back in 2019 (which works out to more like $1.75 billion today after adjustment for inflation). Still, especially in today's market it is very hard to deny that a billion dollar hit is a hit, and the folks at Disney could sure use one about now.