Last month I speculated about whether Ridley Scott's Napoleon had the makings of another Oppenheimer--as another historical biopic that looks like unpromising material for a hit which surprises us all with a box office triumph. I was doubtful (Oppenheimer having had advantages in the form of Christopher Nolan's cheering section and the claims for its relevance based on the hyping of supposedly transformative breakthroughs in artificial intelligence). Going by the initial projection, and the tracking data-based estimates that Boxoffice Pro put out over the month I saw no reason to revise that opinion, while looking at the numbers this weekend it seems that the movie's actual gross has, domestically at least, almost exactly matched Boxoffice Pro's pre-weekend projection (a bit over $20 million for the 3-day period, $32 million for the 5-day period).
Still, how the film's legs hold up remains to be seen. They would seem most unlikely to carry it anywhere near the billion-dollar mark given this start, but it is possible that if the holds are decent, or the film simply enjoys a robust response in the international market that has long been more receptive toward movies like this one than the domestic one (indeed, the film has already picked up $46 million abroad, a figure apparently considered a pleasant surprise by some observers), it might at least cover its costs--which these days seems like a feat for any movie, and still more for a Scott-directed historical epic such as this.
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