Boxoffice Pro has issued its prediction for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes--the fourth movie in the rebooted Planet of the Apes series. The publication's staff anticipate a $40-$50 million opening weekend, and a $100-$140 million overall domestic run for the film.
How do these numbers compare with those its predecessors? Consider the figures for these below (presented with the current dollar grosses of which are outside the parentheses, the adjustment of the figures for March 2024 dollars in them):
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (2011)--$177 million ($244 million)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014)--$209 million ($274 million)
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017)--$147 million ($188 million)
Looking back we can see that the three films were, by summer blockbuster standards, respectable earners, rather than really stellar ones (not one of these movies making its year's top ten in-calendar grossers), while the third film was the low point for the series commercially.* However, that movie's gross was still considerably higher than even the best anticipated for Kingdom, which itself may prove optimistic given this particular film and the market it faces. Coming seven years after the last sequel, and likely seeming unnecessary in the wake of that last film's apparent rounding off a well-received trilogy, extensions of run-down sci-fi franchises are proving a very tough sell these days (the story of 2023).
Still, let us for the moment accept the $100-$140 million figure for now, and put it into a bigger context as part of a bigger worldwide gross. Looking over the international numbers I am struck by how China was an important market for the latter two films (which more than doubled their domestic gross internationally with the help of $100 million+ worth of ticket sales in that country). China being less likely to help out so much this time, I think it safe to guess at a global gross divided more like that of the first film (with the domestic take closer to 40 than 30 percent). That being the case one might anticipate a gross under $450 million, and more likely in the range of $250-$400 million.
At the same time, if the production cost anything like that for the prior two films ($150 million+, before inflation), we could be looking at, between the cost of the production, and the added costs, an outlay of $400-$600 million, necessitating a gross of $500 million+ to get the movie to the break-even point in a relatively optimistic scenario.
The gap between that break-even point, and the likely cost, is such that even a much smaller outlay by the backers than is suggested here may still exceed the film's likely take.**
The result is that it is easy to picture this movie--arguably reflecting the pre-pandemic and pre-2023 logic rather than the thinking demanded by the present situation--losing its backer a good deal of money, perhaps a lot of it. Still, I suspect that just as has been the case in 2023 competition for a place on Deadline's list of the year's biggest flops will prove very stiff indeed, such that I would not rush just yet to claim a spot for it in the list's upper ranks. (For instance, have you heard about this Gladiator 2?)
* The 2011 and 2014 films made only the #11 spot, the 2017 film the 22nd position.
** This is based on usage of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index indicating that $150 million+ in 2014-2017 approximately equal $200 million in early 2024 prices; and, in line with my previously discussed premises, the likelihood that the full expenditure on the film will be 2-3 times the net production budget, the movie need to make up a rough 60 percent of its cost at the box office, and the studios keeping about half the box office gross.
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