The Elephant in the Room During Last Year's Hollywood Labor Battles

Last year the first Hollywood double-strike (of the writers, and actors) since 1960 was big news. Some aspects of the conflict got a bit of discussion--like concern over how working writers' and actors' labors could be used to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) software which would be used to put them out of a job (quite naturally, amid the insane hyping of AI that continues to the present moment).

However, other aspects of the matter did not. Not the least of these--perhaps because fewer appreciated it then, and few still do now--is the likely contraction of the business. While in late 2022 it looked like the American box office was returning to its pre-pandemic norm (about 4 ticket sales per capita in North America, and $14 billion a year grossed domestically in today's money), after what we saw in 2023, and given what we can expect of 2024 (confirmed by what we have seen of it up to the present) what seems to be happening is its stabilizing at a well-below-pre-pandemic level (perhaps 50-70 percent of the pre-pandemic level). Meanwhile with Hollywood having a harder time in the Chinese market, and the streaming bonanza drawing to an end, all this is suggestive of a tighter market--one where profitability can only be sustained by cutting back on production.

The result is a smaller volume of business--a smaller pie--over which all concerned have been fighting, even before one gets into the "What might bes" of artificial intelligence.