Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Revising the Box Office Prediction in Light of New Information)

Last week I reviewed my early April box office prediction for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny--in which I estimated the movie would be more likely to make between $750 million and $1 billion than go over the $1 billion mark, and raised the specter of a Solo-like collapse--in light of Boxoffice Pro's forecast.

In that review I noted Boxoffice Pro's new numbers, and considered some of their possible implications, not least dimming prospects for the high ($1 billion+) gross, and the increasing plausibility of the Solo-like scenario, but did not do much more than that. So here I am going to offer a somewhat fuller update.

For the purposes of this post let us take Boxoffice Pro's figures as a starting point--namely the $225-$380 million domestic range--and consider the worst and best global grosses in relation to those. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull made about 60 percent of its money overseas, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade almost as much, so this seems to me a plausible ceiling. Meanwhile Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom made a mere 46 percent of its money internationally, suggesting it as a plausible floor.

If we assume that the movie makes the top of the domestic range the magazine calculated, and 1.5 times as much more globally, we end up with something in the range of $950 million--not much under $1 billion, close enough in fact as to put the $1 billion figure within a reasonably small margin of error. By contrast, if the movie makes $225 million domestically, and relative to that does no better than Temple of Doom overseas, the movie would take in a mere $415 million or so worldwide.

The result is that, on the basis of our having more information, I now suggest $400 million-$1 billion as the relevant range of the film's gross for prediction now--with, where $1-$1.25 billion had seemed far from implausible, and a Solo-like collapse (which anything under $500 million could safely be counted as) had seemed an outside possibility, the two have switched places.*

Again we are talking about a colossal margin, making the difference between a movie that would be respectable if not stellar, and (maybe) bring in a decent profit by the time all is said and done (with home entertainment, etc., topping off the theatrical rentals), and a Solo-caliber disaster. Splitting the difference between the top and bottom of the range we end up with $700 million--while also splitting the difference between decent money-maker and catastrophe. (Disney-Lucasfilm might be able to break even on the film on a $700 million gross, but not do much better than that.)

Do I think the movie more likely to end up over that $700 million line, or below it? My earlier prediction would suggest an expectation of its going over the line (as, again, $750 million-$1 billion was the range I had in mind as the most likely outcome two months ago, and this remains even inside the new range). Still, the backers erred terribly with their decision to premiere the film at Cannes, undermining their own release with the bad reviews, the spoilers that many will find not to their liking, and the diminution of options for getting the public more excited about the film, as a result of which it is easier to picture the situation getting worse than better. The result is that right now the odds of the movie going over or ending up under the line strike me as even--though that could very easily change in the nearly four weeks remaining between now and the film's release.

* Adjusted for inflation Solo could be said to have grossed $474 million in contemporary dollars (rather more than the worst-case scenario discussed here).