Is The Little Mermaid Playing Like Ant-Man 3?

Ant-Man 3 came out on a four-day holiday weekend, during which it posted respectable numbers, but then went on to an underwhelming gross relative even to the immediately preceding films. There were many dimensions to this--like the film's extremely weak legs (which had it taking in more than half its domestic gross in just those first four days). However, The Little Mermaid, domestically at least, if not opening much differently (it had a $119 million gross, actually less than Ant-Man 3's $120 million), seems bound to make much more money than Ant-Man 3 did, helped by rather stronger legs (the decline in the gross from the first Friday-to-Sunday weekend period to the second just 57 percent, as against Ant-Man 3's 70 percent, bringing its ten-day cume to $186 million, as against Ant-Man's $167 million at the same point).

However, what I am noticing is how the film's domestic underperformance (relatively slight--mainly an underperformance by the super-high standards of Disney's most successful products) is proving much less relevant than the film's international underperformance. Adjusting the numbers for inflation Ant-Man 3's domestic gross was a sixth less than what Ant-Man 2 made, but its international gross was little more than half what its predecessor took in when considered in those terms. Where the domestic gross is concerned The Little Mermaid could easily end up about a sixth down domestically if one treats Aladdin as its most meaningful predecessor--while being down far worse if the film's income in international release is anything to go by. With The Little Mermaid likely to finish up with $300-$350 million domestically, one would have, to go by the performance of its predecessors, taken in $560-$650 million abroad. By contrast the movie would seem likely to finish up with $225-$260 million or so globally--a drop of between 54 and 65 percent from what might have been hoped for just on the basis of this movie's earnings, and worse when one adjusts for inflation (from 68 to 72 percent in that case). Those chewing over the film's success, or failure, as they see it, should attend to that fact.