The Flash's Second Weekend Box Office Gross: Worse Than Ant-Man 3, Again

The opening weekend gross of the much-hyped DCEU film The Flash is a now notorious disappointment. Where a month earlier the projection that it would make no more than a "mere" $140 million in its opening weekend was received with dismay it actually picked up just $55 million in its first three days in release--just two-fifths of that "disappointing" figure.

Meanwhile it seems there were few expectations that the film would prove to have the kind of legs that would ameliorate the disappointment. Before the weekend Boxoffice Pro projected the film's seeing a severe 69 percent weekend-to-weekend drop. The reality was actually worse--73 percent, which left the film with a mere $15 million added and $87.5 million grossed overall (as against the $90 million+ Boxoffice Pro expected).

By contrast Ant-Man 3, which had a $106 million take in its first three days, saw a drop of just 70 percent (leaving it with $32 million added in the second weekend for a total of $167 million). The result is that The Flash not only opened with about half of what Ant-Man 3 did, but is also fading faster. Given that Ant-Man 3 did not do much more than double its opening weekend take over the course of its run (finishing up with $214.5 million), The Flash may be thought likely to do no better. The result would be the film's finishing with not just under $150 million over the entire run, but perhaps even under $110 million--less than what Ant-Man 3 made over the long holiday weekend of its release, and what, in view of the hype about The Flash, would have been regarded as, again, a disappointing opening weekend (never mind overall run). Meanwhile there is little sign of extraordinary success for the film in the international market. Thus far the film, which came out or had come out in all the major overseas markets (the big Asian and European markets--China, Japan, South Korea, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, etc.) by the week that it did in North America, has made 58.5 percent of its income abroad (taking in $123 million internationally). Should that remain the case with the movie having pulled in $110 million domestically, not just the $400 million mark, but even the $300 million mark, will be beyond it. The result is that the movie, which has for weeks seemed likely to lose money for its studio, is likely to leave that much bigger a hole in their books--quite plausibly in the vicinity of $150 million or more even after taking in revenue from video, TV, streaming to go by the pattern seen in recent years.**

* Ant-Man 3's $167 million after ten days worked out to 78 percent of its total gross. Should The Flash (which, again, is fading faster) do no better, it will have $112 million at the end of its run.
** Assume, given the reported $200 million budget, final outlays of $400-$600 million on production, distribution and promotion. With $270 million grossed globally and rentals equal to half of that the movie would end up with $130 million or so banked, while perhaps matching this from the other, later revenue streams--working out to $250 million taken in a pessimistic scenario, against the bigger outlays.