Will the Bad Reviews Matter to the Prospects of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?

What the critics say about movies does not always matter. Some movies do just fine with the critics against them--like The Super Mario Bros. Movie (this year's first and only billion-dollar grosser).

Is it possible that critical negativity will be similarly irrelevant in the case of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?

I doubt that very much.

Why is that? I can think of three reasons.

1. Critical opinion matters more to adults, and especially older adults, than kids. And Indiana Jones 5 will be counting heavily on the older audience--rather more than a movie starring Mario and Luigi, which every Nintendo-playing kid will want to see even if it is supposed to be totally terrible, and make mom and dad take them.

2. No one expects critics to love a film like The Super Mario Bros. Movie, so that their dislike of the film would simply seem background noise. (Indeed, this may be why the critics were allowed to deviate from their usual function of rating movies "from good to excellent" in this case.) But they have been favorable to Indiana Jones in the past--and their not being favorable this time around matters, the more in as

3. Even those older Indiana Jones fans were likely skeptical about this one, given how many years had passed since the last movie (and how many more since the last really well-liked one) with all that means for "recapturing their magic," the sense that Indiana Jones 4 was both a disappointment and a close to the saga after which it should be left alone, an octogenarian Harrison Ford, a new director, new management at Lucasfilm, an amping up of the CGI (we all know how that affected the response to the later Star Wars films), and hints that the theme and tone would be a break with what had been attractive about the preceding films that might diminish the happy memory of them, among much, much else. It would have been helpful to have critics assuaging that skepticism--but instead their reviews make clear that they not only think it a lackluster film at best, but tell those who had such concerns that the movie is exactly what they were afraid it would be.

The result is that, yes, this is one where critical opinion matters--and is working against the movie rather than for it, with the consequences implicit in the Boxoffice Pro forecast for the film's opening weekend and full domestic runs. (Remember what happened the last time Phoebe Waller-Bridge played sidekick to an iconic Harrison Ford character? Well . . .)