unprepossessing as this already is I would not be shocked to see the projection fall in the weeks ahead (as has happened so many times this year with comparable films, like Indiana Jones and Mission: Impossible).In this week's update of the estimate (likely the last "long-range forecast" for the film) that is exactly what has happened. Where their projection had been a paltry $31-$45 million then, now their expectation is in the $24-$37.5 million range.
The result is that not only does the $200 million mark, which I already thought out of reach then, now seem even more remote, but it seems even more likely than before that the $100 million movie will fall short of a $100 million global gross.
Going by the rule of thumb that the reported production budget rarely equals more than 50 percent of the total outlay, (and often much less) given the price of advertising, distribution and interest, and the claims of "residuals and participations" on a film's income stream (likely not trivial in a Big Name-packed sequel like this one); and that the film needs to make at least 50 percent of that back at the box office (from 50 percent of the gross or less); the break-even requirement would be at the very least $200 million. Moreover, one can easily picture a situation where the bill was much higher. (A movie may cost three times its production budget, while the backers may get more like 40 percent of the gross, or even less, and needing the ticket sales to cover much more of the price tag given the upward bound there tends to be on home entertainment income--in which case the backers of a $100 million movie may need something more like $400 million+.)
Accordingly one can expect Expendables 4 to be a significant loss-maker. Still, in the year that saw The Flash and Indiana Jones 5 it will probably not make the Deadline list of the top five money-losers of the year.
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