Will Captain Marvel 2 Lose Money? (Revisiting the Numbers)

Previously, in light of the revelations about the cost of making Captain Marvel 2 (aka The Marvels) I speculated that the movie might need to make $650 million+ at the box office in order for its backers to break even on their investment.

At the time I was still working with my initial projection of a worldwide gross of $600-$700 million.

Recently extrapolating from Boxoffice Pro's tracking data-based estimate of the domestic gross ($121-$189 million) I suggested that, in a new low for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (removing the exceptional conditions of 2020-2021 from the picture) the movie might make $250-$500 million worldwide.

The result is that the mark at which profitability becomes plausible is that much further removed from even the high end of its likely gross. If that proves the case the movie might, instead of turning a modest profit, or even just covering its cost, be another loss-maker for Disney--in the worst-case scenario (a Flash-like performance) another $100 million+ loss for Disney, and even an Indiana Jones 5-caliber loser.

Of course, it is best to reiterate that this is an estimate made with still a month to go. I see no grounds to expect the situation to get better than it is--but all the same, a good deal can change in a few weeks, and for my part I will be keeping an eye on this one.