The Expendables 4: The Second and Third Weekend Box Office Gross, and Beyond

I was never bullish about Expendables 4, and after the early tracking data became public I suggested the movie could plausibly fail to make $100 million worldwide--by the standard of a franchise that had to begin with been modest by blockbuster standards, a collapse on par with Solo, The Flash or Indiana Jones 5. The underwhelming opening weekend ($8 million in North America) did not change that expectation, nor did the next two weekends. Dim as the prospect had become by that point, Boxoffice Pro still managed to overestimate its second weekend prospects, anticipating a mere 55 percent weekend-on-weekend drop giving the movie $3.6 million that weekend. Instead the drop was 69 percent, leaving it with just $2.4 million--while there seemed to be no projection for the following weekend, in line with the movie falling out of the "top ten" altogether by its third weekend. (As it happened, it took in another $1 million.)

The result is that after 21 days in release the movie had yet to hit the $16 million mark--while after the next three days seems unlikely to get much above it. The result is that where the low end of Boxoffice Pro's already lowered projection just before the movie came out had it making $24 million in North America, this seemingly puny target for the series looks hopelessly beyond its reach, as the same goes even for $20 million.

Meanwhile there is little sign of succor from overseas. Box Office Mojo currently reports the international gross as $14 million. Curiously China, where the movie had an $11 million opening weekend, is not included in that, but the less-than-stellar opening being tripled would still leave the movie far from $100 million worldwide.

As I often do when making such claims I thought I was being overly pessimistic when I said the movie might not break $100 million. And as has often happened this year after testing my "pessimistic" prediction against the reality, my pessimism seemed like optimism--as, given the massive loss the backers seem certain to take on this movie, another franchise "bites the dust."