Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Can the MCU Reverse the Erosion of its Audience?

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 had a disappointing opening weekend, but afterward had surprisingly strong holds for a blockbuster threequel (and still more, for a pandemic-era MCU release with a soft initial reception) given such films tendency to have their grosses very "front-loaded."

A plausible reading of the situation is that audiences coming to the movie are genuinely liking what they are seeing--maybe more than anything the MCU has offered them since Spider-Man: No Way Home (with this supported by the 94 percent audience score I see on Rotten Tomatoes).

Of course, the positive reaction goes only so far. Even at my most optimistic I see the film making a final sum closer to $800 million than $900 million--a far cry from the $1 billion+ Guardians of the Galaxy 2 earned in real terms, let alone the $1.2 billion Screen Rant anticipated for the film back in January, which would justify a view of the film as some proof that "The MCU is back!"*

All the same, this does raise the question of whether the MCU can reverse the evident erosion of its audience--and more importantly, do it with the existing slate of projects (as, should the movies already headed their way flop, they will make the task harder for its successors).

What are your thoughts, readers?

Screen Rant has since offered the more modest (but still bullish) prediction that the movie "could still grow its box office to at least $1 billion throughout the summer."

2 comments:

Dominic Parker said...

Hey Nader, I haven’t seen Guardians 3 yet (going to Thursday), but I honestly think that the MCU isn’t as bad off as some people may think. For me at least, most (though not all) of the Phase 4 projects were, at the very least, entertaining and fun, and to a degree the uncertainty surrounding the franchise’s future is understandable - in fact, IMO all franchises are going through this difficult phase of pandemic-era change. Five years from now should tell the tale, but I wouldn’t give up on the idea that the MCU can potentially shift gears to a more favorable position for its audiences. How they would, I’m not sure yet, but time will tell.
I think it should also be noted that with the whole Kang controversy, with him (at least originally) going to be the main antagonist that pulls the different MCU characters together into one larger plot, the MCU will be forced to make some difficult adjustments if it wants to move forward as a franchise. This is all just my opinion, of course. I’d be interested to see what you think of the MCU in light of the controversy surrounding Kang’s actor.

Nader said...

Hi Dominic. Thanks for writing.
You're certainly right that in five years things could look very different. You're also right about the shock of the pandemic, and that all this isn't necessarily a reflection on the quality of the movies. Still, I do think that Spider-Man: No Way Home (among many other movies) showed that if the audience was really excited they would still come out, and that recent movies haven't excited them the way Phase 3 did. Even if it was really exceptional for people excitement-wise, it still was a peak for the MCU (so far), from which things have gone down some way, even if Marvel is still a big money-maker (we should remember that) and may be at least partly reversible.
As for the Kang issue: I am aware of the scandal, but I pay as little attention to the "gossip" as I can, especially when we're in the middle of it. Meanwhile right now rumors about Marvel's longer-term plans and how they might change as a result are running wild—and I'd like to think about all this more before I try doing anything with it (though I have been looking at the Phase 6 plans).
What do you think about all this?

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