Guardians of the Galaxy 3's Third Weekend: How Did it Do at the Box Office? (Oh, and What About That Fast X?)

Guardians of the Galaxy 3's third weekend performance has been in line with last week's predictions--another good hold enabling the movie to take in another $30 million at the domestic box office, raising its total here to $267 million. Meanwhile the movie's global gross is about $659 million according to the current estimate.

Thus the pattern evident last week remains evident now: after what seemed to many a weak opening, reasonably strong legs that compensated for it at home, while relative to the past films in the series Guardians of the Galaxy 3 has benefited from a slightly higher intake of money internationally (more like 60 percent than 55-57 percent of its money coming from foreign markets thus far).

At this point the movie is all but certain to finish up north of $300 million domestically, and $700 million globally--and north even of the $750 million I had thought it would not get much past. Indeed, my prior prediction of something around $330 million domestically and $825 million globally still seems to me reasonably optimistic.

A pleasant surprise after the plummeting expectations in the weeks preceding the movie's release, and the opening weekend (which had me speculating about Ant-Man 3-based worst-case scenarios of a sub-$600 million global take, now quite moot) what I said earlier about that performance also seems true. If a better outcome relative to its predecessors than other recent Marvel releases have seen it is still something of a comedown from the last two, especially when we adjust the figures for inflation--the two Guardians of the Galaxy films $1 billion hits in 2023 dollars, a mark of which its 2023 follow-up will almost certainly fall well short. Accordingly those hoping to see the Marvel Cinematic Universe collapse at the box office may not be able to gloat the way they might have thought a couple of weeks ago--but at the same time the mega-franchise's backers and supporters are reminded that they have no grounds for complacency, that profits are falling for a now aging franchise showing signs of weariness, even as, with Phase Five less than inspiring, the studio management cries "To Phase Six. And beyond!"

The story does not seem dissimilar for Fast X. The movie took in $67 million at the North American box office--near the upper end of the range predicted for it, but no better than that--while doing better overseas, with an impressive $320 million gross. Thus far I see no reason to change my prediction (a North American take in the $160-$175 million range, a global take in the vicinity of $800 million).

Meanwhile The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which on top of an extraordinary debut ($225 million racked up in its first six days) has shown extraordinary staying power at the box office, has continued to do so by taking in another $10 million to remain at #3 in its seventh weekend--confirming the expectations that this will be Chris Pratt's highest-grossing movie this year, and likely exceed the earnings of any live-action movie this year (with, in the wake of Indiana Jones 5's always uncertain and perhaps dimming prospects, a real possibility that none of these will break the $1 billion barrier Mario and friends broke so easily and quickly).