Guardians of the Galaxy 3: The Question of its Legs--at Home and Abroad

Considering the initial reports of the opening weekend performance of Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (which were downgraded by yet another 2 percent just as I was writing my first draft of that post!) my concern was for how the domestic opening weekend gross compared with earlier expectations about it, and what it implied for the film's likely earnings from its fuller theatrical run.

Thinking in terms of the box office trajectory of the preceding films, and Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in particular (the opening weekend domestic gross equaled about 15 percent of the essential total), it seemed to me that the number--which was toward the much-deflated level anticipated by the time of the film's actual release--affirmed the prediction of $700 million I had suggested on the expectation that Guardians would see a rough one-third drop in its box office gross over its run (like Ant-Man 3 before it).

Still, in considering any analogy with Ant-Man 3 it is worth remembering that the film was initially regarded as at least reasonably successful on the basis of a robust-looking first weekend. The bigger than expected drop from week to week afterward--which meant that much less money was piled atop that opening weekend take--was what led to the view of the film as a disappointment. If Guardians of the Galaxy 3, after this weekend that has seen the movie gross about 63 percent of what Guardians of the Galaxy 2 did in its opening weekend, were to see its week-to-week "holds" look less like those of Guardians than of Ant-Man 3 with all they imply for the longer run (taking in, instead of 38 percent of its eventual theatrical gross, almost 50 percent of its total gross in its first Friday-to-Sunday period), then Guardians--which made scarcely more than Ant-Man 3 did in its first three days (and less than it made in the longer President's Day weekend of its debut) would similarly end up with well under $250 million, maybe around $230 million.

Is the film likely to suffer such a drop? Certainly the MCU's legs have been drawing unfavorable comment lately--while I cannot help noticing the particular parallel between the Friday-to-Sunday trajectory of Guardians 3 and Ant-Man 3 (from $48 million on Friday to $27 million on Sunday in the case of the former, and from $46 million to $26 million in the case of the latter).

I do not rule it out--while remembering that Ant-Man 3's weak "legs" were almost as evident abroad, the movie so that it ends up having taken in perhaps 46 percent of its international gross in just those first three days, a rough $120 million on the way to a $260 million total. Of course, Guardians of the Galaxy 3 has done better than that internationally, pulling in a bit better-than-expected $168 million in its first three days in international release.

Still, should it do no better from here on out than Ant-Man 3 did with regard to holds it would pull in $365 million--well under the $400 million or so I had earlier projected.

The result is that while the weekend meant no surprises for me regarding the upper end of the range into which the film's gross will likely fall, the lower end is another matter--the movie's ending up with closer to $600 million than $700 million still possible. For the time being I still think $700 million more likely than $600 million, but we will know more next weekend--which makes it one to watch for all those curious as to the film's trajectory, and that of the MCU.