What We Can Expect of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: A Box Office Prediction (The Global Gross, and the $1 Billion Question)

With a mere week to go before the film's release, Boxoffice Pro's Shawn Robbins upgraded the forecast for the domestic gross of the sequel to the animated 2018 Spider-Man film, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, to the range of $259-$362 million (a rough one-ninth increase from the prior level at the high end, from $325 million).

Implying a potential gross almost 60 percent higher in real terms than what the first film raked in domestically ($190 million, which is more like $229 million in April 2023 money), it would be a very rare case of a post-pandemic sequel doing better--much better--than its pre-pandemic predecessor. (Indeed, the only point of comparison that comes to mind--perhaps not coincidentally--is the colossal gross of that other Spider-Man movie, Spider-Man: No Way Home, with its $800 million take.*)

Should the new film merely approach the upper limit of the range projected by Boxoffice Pro it would very likely beat Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (my expectation still has it topping out at about $330 million), every other Marvel film this year (all of which I expect to do less business than Guardians), very likely The Flash as well (especially with its projected gross looking less impressive than before), Blue Beetle and, especially if the bad buzz is to be heeded, probably Aquaman 2 as well, at the box office--which would, again, leave it the highest-grossing Marvel superhero movie, or just plain superhero movie, of 2023, domestically at least.

Could it make the $1 billion mark, though? Assuming the bullish view about the film's domestic prospects is justified the big "if" here would be foreign response. Some movies, after all, do as much as three or more times their domestic business overseas, with the later installments of the Fast and Furious franchise excellent examples. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse did not do much more than match its domestic gross internationally ($194 million international to $190 million domestic). Were that international response merely to grow alongside the way the domestic gross is expected to expand one would call that an extraordinary success--but that would leave the movie with not much more than $700 million in the till. Thus, barring even more extreme domestic overperformance than has already been envisaged, foreign enthusiasm would have to grow much more than domestic enthusiasm has--the movie not seeing its gross rise by 60 percent in relation to the first film, but more like triple. (In April 2023 terms the movie's $194 million gross would be more like $234 million--as against the $640 million+ probably required to get the movie into the billion-dollar club.) This may not be impossible--but I have seen no evidence for it so far.

The result is that the safer bet would still seem to be something between the bottom of the Boxoffice Pro projection combined with the foreign gross the first film got ($260 million domestic, $230 million overseas+), and the high end of the domestic range matched by a proportionately enlarged gross abroad ($362 million, plus $370 million abroad) as the lower and upper limits of the plausible range of the worldwide gross. This works out to arrange of approximately $500 million-$750 million, with the $1 billion take only an outside possibility for now.

* Spider-Man: Far From Home took in $390 million in the summer of 2019--which equaled $424 million in December 2021, when Spider-Man: No Way Home opened and collected almost twice as much ($814 million, 92 percent more than the prior film's already impressive sum).