How Much Did Guardians of the Galaxy 3 Actually Make On its Opening Weekend? And How Much is it Likely to Make in its Overall Run?

Guardians of the Galaxy 3 took in $114 million at the North American box office this weekend. Those inclined to look "on the bright side" emphasize that it bettered the $110 million expectation people spoke of recently--and ignore that it at the same time fell short not just of the $116 million it was estimated to be earlier this morning, or the $120 million Variety suggested this past week, but the $155 million Boxoffice Pro thought possible just last month, and still more, what Guardians of the Galaxy 2 actually managed during the same three-day May 5 through May 7 period back in 2017. Its $147 million back in 2017 is more like $180 million today--leaving Guardian 3's take down by a third.

If we take that one-third drop as indicative of the film's longer-run fortunes (and there is no reason yet to think this MCU threequel launched at the start of a crowded summer season will have exceptional "legs") then we should expect the movie, on the premise that this is about 38 percent of its gross, to make a bit over $300 million domestically. Assuming the foreign earnings are proportionate (Guardians 2 made 122 percent of the domestic gross abroad), expect the movie to pull in about $400 million internationally for a $700 million total global gross.

Expect the press to put a bright face on this. But relative to the pricier and better-performing Guardians of the Galaxy franchise this would be an Ant-Man 3-like drop. And this is by no means the worst scenario, as Ant-Man 3 itself shows. The fall in the franchise's grosses with the third installment domestically was much milder than the fall in those grosses internationally. (Where the drop in inflation-adjusted terms at the North American box office was about one-sixth, internationally it was more like half--the main reason why the movie failed to break a half billion at the box office.) Should Ant-Man 3's performance portend even worse "Marvel fatigue" abroad than at home in America as the norm for the subsequent Marvel releases then we will see the international gross that much weaker. Were it to fall by half we would see the movie fall short of $300 million internationally, and thus a combined, global gross below $600 million.

The press will have a harder time putting a bright face on that, but at that level we might see this movie turn out to be a genuine loss-maker for the studio--while it will portend nothing good for The Marvels later this year, or for the MCU more generally. (To put it bluntly, if Guardians fails to make $700 million, I see that movie as less likely to make that mark.)

All that has me wondering at the decision to include hints of unannounced MCU sequels in the post-credits scene, suggesting lots and lots of follow-up to what we saw in the less-than-happy Phase Four.

To me it hints at Disney-Marvel's "staying the course," in spite of its troubles.

Any thoughts on that, readers?