What Will Pixar's Elemental Make at the Worldwide Box Office? (A Box Office Gross Prediction)

Pixar's Elemental will be only the second film from that studio to have a "normal" release (theaters only, in a box office well on its way to normalization) since the pandemic cut off Onward's initially well-received and commercially promising run.

The first film was Lightyear--a major failure, commercially at least. (Deadline estimated the loss the studio suffered on the movie at over $100 million last year--making it a Solo-caliber flop.)

As it happens, Boxoffice Pro, a mere three weeks before the film's opening, was not optimistic about this one either, estimating its likely domestic gross at $98-$167 million--what would at the low end be a disappointing opening weekend for such a movie, never mind its whole run.

Of course, a Pixar movie can put in a not-so-good performance domestically and make up for it overseas. Coco certainly did so--its $210 million in 2017 a far cry from Inside Out's $356 million two years earlier, to say nothing of the $400 million+ taken in by Finding Dory (2016) and Toy Story 4 (2019), and of course, the $600 million+ scored by The Incredibles 2 (2018). Still, performing at Pixar's usual standard overseas, bringing in nearly $600 million more, made it an $800 million hit.

All the same, that was very anomalous, the norm for Pixar its movies' making 50 to 60 percent of their money internationally (rather than the near-three quarters Coco did).* Moreover, Elemental's anticipated gross is way below Coco's at even the high end, even before we start thinking about what six years of inflation have done to the dollar.

What do these numbers suggest? Assume the film, in line with the most pessimistic extrapolation from the available numbers, pulls in $100 million domestically, and no better than that overseas. This leaves Pixar with $200 million in the till.

Alternatively, assume the film's gross is at the high end of the Boxoffice Pro range, and like Coco makes three-quarters of its money overseas. We could be looking at a gross of $660 million+.

A range of between $200 million and $660 million is very wide indeed--but we do have a midpoint in $430 million, while we can consider a range of more specific scenarios within the parameters of the numbers discussed here, eschewing both the worst case (the movie's falling equally flat at home and abroad) and the best (the movie doing relatively well or better at home, and cleaning up internationally in that way so rarely seen).

Assuming the film makes the bottom of the range estimated by Boxoffice Pro domestically (just under $100 million), but, as is usual when a Pixar film does relatively poorly in the U.S., somewhat better abroad--pulling in, say, 60 percent of its money there--we would end up with a global gross of $250 million. (And again, with three quarters of its money made abroad, Coco-style, it would bring in some $400 million.)

Assuming the film makes the middle of the range estimated by Boxoffice Pro at home ($133 million), and only matches this overseas (as seen with Incredibles 2), we end up with about $270 million. With 60 percent of the money being made overseas (another $200 million), we have a take of more like $330 million (while with three quarters grossed there it would make more like $530 million).

Assuming the film makes the top of the range discussed domestically ($167 million), and matches this overseas, we end up with $335 million, while its making 60 percent of its money overseas would work out to its making a bit under $420 million.

Meanwhile consider an analogy we overlook if focused on the more recent and more successful films--The Good Dinosaur--which may be especially salient. At the moment I cannot say much about Elemental artistically--but it has seemed to me that, where the general audience (and especially the American audience) is concerned, science fiction and fantasy are an easier sell when the concepts are familiar and easy for people who are not hardcore sci-fi fans to grasp--and the setting not too different from contemporary Earth. Thus was it with the present day-set films about superheroes (The Incredibles), talking fish (Finding Nemo and its sequel) and talking toys (Toy Story) that have been Pixar's biggest moneymakers. By contrast The Good Dinosaur, with its counterfactual premise and quasi-prehistoric milieu and spin on the theme of the adventure of a "boy and his dog," was conceptually "too much." So might it go with Elemental, with its city where beings of fire, air, water and earth all live together.

How did The Good Dinosaur end up doing?

It picked up $123 million domestic and $332 million worldwide (making less than the usual, with American sales especially depressed so that it took in 63 percent of its money overseas). Adjusted for inflation this works out to $157 million domestic--and $424 million global in April 2023 dollars, about the midpoint between the bottom and top ends of the range discussed above.

Meanwhile, taking the circa $130 million estimate discussed as the mid-range for the domestic gross here, and assuming its accounting for just 37 percent of the global total (as the other 63 percent come in from overseas), we end up with more like $350 million.

Apart from the comparative outlier of $530 million, the figures I have amassed here --$250 million, $270 million, $330 million, $335 million, $420 million, $430 million in the better and worse scenarios, and the numbers from the more specific analogy with The Good Dinosaur too—fall within the range of $250-$430 million. Rounding up or down to the nearest $50 million for good measure, we end up with a range of $250-$450 million, and $350 million or so (the same figure we got with the looser analogy with The Good Dinosaur) right in the middle.

In the absence of more information at present that--$250-$450 million, and the middle of that range especially--is the vicinity in which I expect the final take to end up. All the same, I do not wholly rule out a $600 million+ take, especially in the event of the film finding a stronger reception overseas, which, if not putting it on a level with the $1 billion hits to which Pixar, like Marvel, got so accustomed in the late '10s, would make it no Lightyear-like failure.

* The figures for Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, Toy Story 4 and Inside Out were, respectively, 51, 53, 60 and 58 percent.