Not long ago one might have thought that Guardians of the Galaxy 3, Fast X and The Little Mermaid were all contenders for the glory of a $1 billion gross at the worldwide box office--and where the upcoming releases of June are concerned, Elemental, The Flash and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny too.
I suspected, however, that none of these movies, or any other live-action movie of the year, might make that mark.
Right now Guardians of the Galaxy 3, already out for a solid month, has yet to make $800 million, and that without much further to go. (My guess is that it will end up somewhere in the vicinity of $825 million.)
Fast X, for the moment, does not seem likely to do better (with $900 million, at least, out of reach).
Meanwhile, if The Little Mermaid is doing decently domestically (on its way to $300-$350 million), its poor international performance makes any such gross elusive (with my guess a final worldwide take in the $600 million range).
At the same time the prospects for Elemental, The Flash and Indiana Jones have deteriorated.
My guess is that, based on what we now hear, Elemental is unlikely to cross the half-billion dollar mark; The Flash, as its domestic box office prospects especially sink, lucky indeed to make $700 million; and Indiana Jones, which I had thought more likely than not to fall short of the $1 billion mark in April, looking like it will do ever-less than that, with a Solo-like collapse safely within the range of the most recent Boxoffice Pro report.
The result is that, barring some great surprise, not a single live-action movie of the first six months of 2023 will break the billion-dollar mark--while the second half of the year seems no more promising. The only movie I think may have a shot of bucking the trend is Aquaman 2--but I am more doubtful about that one all the time.
Consequently this first really "normal" year for the movies after the pandemic looks rather underwhelming. One may wonder if this does not reflect a permanent hit to theatergoing habits, and the reality that people are still catching COVID and suffering the ill effects. However, it seems to me that the main issue is the uninspiring product on offer, as we are reminded when we look beyond the live-action films. People really wanted to see The Super Mario Bros. Movie apparently, and the result is that, even coming out well before summer, it blew past the $1 billion mark (and now has $1.3 billion in the till)--in the process becoming the fourth movie to do so in a year and a half (following Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun 2 and Avatar 2). If the summer movie slate excited the public as much the moviegoers would have come. Instead it didn't--a reminder of how, in the case of most of these films, the studios have gone on trying to wring every last penny out of the same old franchises far past the point of diminishing returns, while, as the international situation decays, China's market becomes less accessible to Hollywood again.
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Aquaman 2, China and the Film's Chances of a $1 Billion Gross
Aquaman is, to date, the biggest money-maker the DCEU ever had--and its only current-dollar billion-dollar hit. However, the movie was only a "respectable" grosser at home by first-rank superhero movie standards (its $335 million rather less than what Wonder Woman made the year before). What really put it over the top was its especially strong overseas gross--accounting for some 71 percent of its worldwide income (also a franchise high).
The result is that, all other things being equal, one might hope for a strong performance on the part of the sequel, with even a significant drop in the real-terms gross from the original's ($1.15 billion when it came out in December 2018, more like $1.4 billion in 2023 dollars) allowing it to be the kind of $1 billion hit so elusive for Hollywood's live-action films these days.
Alas, all things are not equal, with one factor well worth remembering that China was especially important in making the movie such a success. (Without its $292 million gross there the movie would have ended its run with just $850 million.)
With China so important--accounting for a quarter of the worldwide box office gross--should Aquaman 2 suffer the way many more recent American releases have in China the film could already be expected to do significantly less well. (Should, for example, the film do only half the business in China that its predecessor did--which would be a lot better than, say, the Ant-Man sequel managed--that would in today's terms mean almost $200 million off the top.) Meanwhile the movie faces other, significant, headwinds:
* The five year wait since the last film--and the slight turnout of DCEU films in those five years, with all that meant for sustaining interest in, or even awareness of, the brand.
* The end of the DCEU as we know it, undermining any attempt to make Aquaman 2 "an event."
* Bad (frankly, very bad) buzz about the film itself.
It may also be that The Flash, if indeed poorly received after the breathless hype (as seems possible), may not be helpful to the next DCEU release.
The result is that, if Aquaman 2 is, apart from Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (which has missed its chance), and Indiana Jones 5 (the prospects of which are fading), the most likely contender for a $1 billion gross of any live-action movie coming out this year, I can easily picture it too falling short of the mark.
The result is that, all other things being equal, one might hope for a strong performance on the part of the sequel, with even a significant drop in the real-terms gross from the original's ($1.15 billion when it came out in December 2018, more like $1.4 billion in 2023 dollars) allowing it to be the kind of $1 billion hit so elusive for Hollywood's live-action films these days.
Alas, all things are not equal, with one factor well worth remembering that China was especially important in making the movie such a success. (Without its $292 million gross there the movie would have ended its run with just $850 million.)
With China so important--accounting for a quarter of the worldwide box office gross--should Aquaman 2 suffer the way many more recent American releases have in China the film could already be expected to do significantly less well. (Should, for example, the film do only half the business in China that its predecessor did--which would be a lot better than, say, the Ant-Man sequel managed--that would in today's terms mean almost $200 million off the top.) Meanwhile the movie faces other, significant, headwinds:
* The five year wait since the last film--and the slight turnout of DCEU films in those five years, with all that meant for sustaining interest in, or even awareness of, the brand.
* The end of the DCEU as we know it, undermining any attempt to make Aquaman 2 "an event."
* Bad (frankly, very bad) buzz about the film itself.
It may also be that The Flash, if indeed poorly received after the breathless hype (as seems possible), may not be helpful to the next DCEU release.
The result is that, if Aquaman 2 is, apart from Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (which has missed its chance), and Indiana Jones 5 (the prospects of which are fading), the most likely contender for a $1 billion gross of any live-action movie coming out this year, I can easily picture it too falling short of the mark.
China's Importance for a $1 Billion Gross: The Case of 2019
In 2019 nine Hollywood movies' grosses broke the $1 billion barrier in worldwide release.
Three of those movies--Spider-Man: Far From Home, Captain Marvel, Aladdin--would not have crossed the $1 billion mark without Chinese revenue. Meanwhile others that would have saw their bottom lines a good deal healthier as a result of a China release--with Avengers: Endgame, if breaking the $2 billion barrier without China, still adding another $600 million to its worldwide gross because it came out there, as The Lion King and Frozen II each added a welcome $100 million+ to their worldwide gross thanks to their China release. (Only for Star Wars Episode IX, Toy Story 4, and Joker was China unimportant.)
All this is something well worth remembering when we consider the lackluster grosses of Hollywood's films this year in light of China's increasing closure to American films (with, we are told, Chinese authorities undermining American releases by delaying approval so as to make timely physical distribution of the films, and satisfactory promotional campaigns, nearly unworkable).
The resulting, declining prospect of making money in China, barring some improvement in the market situation, is going to be yet another source of downward pressure on Hollywood's income--and, if such a thing is possible, another driver of change in how it does business.
Three of those movies--Spider-Man: Far From Home, Captain Marvel, Aladdin--would not have crossed the $1 billion mark without Chinese revenue. Meanwhile others that would have saw their bottom lines a good deal healthier as a result of a China release--with Avengers: Endgame, if breaking the $2 billion barrier without China, still adding another $600 million to its worldwide gross because it came out there, as The Lion King and Frozen II each added a welcome $100 million+ to their worldwide gross thanks to their China release. (Only for Star Wars Episode IX, Toy Story 4, and Joker was China unimportant.)
All this is something well worth remembering when we consider the lackluster grosses of Hollywood's films this year in light of China's increasing closure to American films (with, we are told, Chinese authorities undermining American releases by delaying approval so as to make timely physical distribution of the films, and satisfactory promotional campaigns, nearly unworkable).
The resulting, declining prospect of making money in China, barring some improvement in the market situation, is going to be yet another source of downward pressure on Hollywood's income--and, if such a thing is possible, another driver of change in how it does business.
Hollywood's Shaky Film Grosses: The China Factor
In considering the underperformance of recent Hollywood titles my emphasis has tended to be on the domestic market, but I have also noted again and again the fact that with films such as Ant-Man 3 and The Little Mermaid the overseas underperformance has been markedly worse. This was the reason why Ant-Man 3 failed to break a half billion dollars; why it seems to me likely at the time of writing that The Little Mermaid will not make much more than $600 million.
Of course, assessing the global market is a more complex matter than considering just one market. Still, it is the case that some markets are more important than others, with China of special consequence--and identifiable as a growing problem area for Hollywood. The increasingly deep relationship between the U.S. film industry and its Chinese counterpart evident in the 2010s has, far from continuing to progress, degenerated--right along with relations between their respective governments, and the broader disruption of their economic connections.
A glance at the performance of the two aforementioned films makes it clear that while trouble in China is not the whole story, it is a big part of it.
Ant-Man 3, to merely match its predecessor in real, inflation-adjusted terms, needed to make $740 million or so globally, with some $480 million of that expected to come in from overseas. Instead it made about $260 million overseas--a $200 million+ shortfall of about 45 percent. As it happens, the shortfall in China, which was disproportionate, accounts for a very big chunk of this. Where Ant-Man 2, in line with Marvel's popularity in China, took in $121 million in that market in 2018, which is equal to $145 million in February 2023 dollars, Ant-Man 3 made a mere $39 million in China--a 73 percent drop, that accounts for almost half ($105 million) the drop in overseas box office revenue relative to the predecessor by itself.
So does it also go with The Little Mermaid in a China long receptive not only to Marvel but to live-action adaptations of Disney's animated classics as well. In 2016 The Jungle Book was an especially strong performer, taking in $150 million there (which is more like $190 million today), while The Lion King also took in $120 million in 2019. Not in the same class, Beauty and the Beast took in $85 million, and even the disappointing Aladdin still picked up $53 million in 2019 (equal to more like $63 million).
By contrast The Little Mermaid has grossed under $4 million in ten days of release, making its even breaking into the double-digits a long shot.
For all that, some Hollywood movies, Disney films included, still do fairly well in China. Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy 3's $84 million gross in China at present, if down from what Guardians of the Galaxy 2 made in that country ($100 million in 2017), is a 32 percent real-terms drop--not much different from what Guardians seems likely to end up with at home, frankly (its likely $340 million final gross itself almost a third down from the $480 million+ that its 2017 domestic gross would be in today's dollars). Still, the trend can only be worrisome for Disney--and one should not forget, all the other Hollywood studios that have so come to count on China.
It should also worry even those who (understandably) have no interest in the economics of filmmaking whatsoever--because of what it says about the deterioration of international relations and the functioning of the global economy in an increasingly conflict-ridden, and dangerous, world.
Of course, assessing the global market is a more complex matter than considering just one market. Still, it is the case that some markets are more important than others, with China of special consequence--and identifiable as a growing problem area for Hollywood. The increasingly deep relationship between the U.S. film industry and its Chinese counterpart evident in the 2010s has, far from continuing to progress, degenerated--right along with relations between their respective governments, and the broader disruption of their economic connections.
A glance at the performance of the two aforementioned films makes it clear that while trouble in China is not the whole story, it is a big part of it.
Ant-Man 3, to merely match its predecessor in real, inflation-adjusted terms, needed to make $740 million or so globally, with some $480 million of that expected to come in from overseas. Instead it made about $260 million overseas--a $200 million+ shortfall of about 45 percent. As it happens, the shortfall in China, which was disproportionate, accounts for a very big chunk of this. Where Ant-Man 2, in line with Marvel's popularity in China, took in $121 million in that market in 2018, which is equal to $145 million in February 2023 dollars, Ant-Man 3 made a mere $39 million in China--a 73 percent drop, that accounts for almost half ($105 million) the drop in overseas box office revenue relative to the predecessor by itself.
So does it also go with The Little Mermaid in a China long receptive not only to Marvel but to live-action adaptations of Disney's animated classics as well. In 2016 The Jungle Book was an especially strong performer, taking in $150 million there (which is more like $190 million today), while The Lion King also took in $120 million in 2019. Not in the same class, Beauty and the Beast took in $85 million, and even the disappointing Aladdin still picked up $53 million in 2019 (equal to more like $63 million).
By contrast The Little Mermaid has grossed under $4 million in ten days of release, making its even breaking into the double-digits a long shot.
For all that, some Hollywood movies, Disney films included, still do fairly well in China. Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy 3's $84 million gross in China at present, if down from what Guardians of the Galaxy 2 made in that country ($100 million in 2017), is a 32 percent real-terms drop--not much different from what Guardians seems likely to end up with at home, frankly (its likely $340 million final gross itself almost a third down from the $480 million+ that its 2017 domestic gross would be in today's dollars). Still, the trend can only be worrisome for Disney--and one should not forget, all the other Hollywood studios that have so come to count on China.
It should also worry even those who (understandably) have no interest in the economics of filmmaking whatsoever--because of what it says about the deterioration of international relations and the functioning of the global economy in an increasingly conflict-ridden, and dangerous, world.
Guardians of the Galaxy 3's Fifth Weekend Fast X's Third Weekend at the Box Office (Weekend Numbers, Long-Term Global Prediction)
This past weekend Guardians of the Galaxy 3 took in some $10 million domestically, bringing its total to $322 million. Meanwhile, with the film's global take already up to $780 million the movie seems all but certain to break the $800 million barrier, with its finishing up somewhere in the vicinity of $825 million still likely. The sole (slight) change in my expectations as compared with those of a few weeks ago is that a little less of the money will come from abroad and a little more domestically (circa $340 million rather than $330 million given the current rates of week-to-week decline).
Fast X's Third Weekend at the Box Office (Weekend Numbers, Long-Term Global Prediction)
This past weekend Fast X took in another $9 million at the box office--not a very impressive take for a would-be blockbuster like this in its third weekend. Given the observed rate of decline from week-to-week (as well as weekend-to-weekend) of about 60 percent I expect the movie to finish at (or even slightly below) the low end of the Boxoffice Pro projections seen before its release, with some $150-$160 million banked domestically. Of course the movie is doing far better abroad, but even should it do as well as any of its predecessors internationally (taking in 82 percent of its gross overseas) it still cannot be expected to reach $900 million--with the possibility of its sputtering out even before the $800 million mark not out of the question.
Sunday, June 4, 2023
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Revising the Box Office Prediction in Light of New Information)
In that review I noted Boxoffice Pro's new numbers, and considered some of their possible implications, not least dimming prospects for the high ($1 billion+) gross, and the increasing plausibility of the Solo-like scenario, but did not do much more than that. So here I am going to offer a somewhat fuller update.
For the purposes of this post let us take Boxoffice Pro's figures as a starting point--namely the $225-$380 million domestic range--and consider the worst and best global grosses in relation to those. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull made about 60 percent of its money overseas, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade almost as much, so this seems to me a plausible ceiling. Meanwhile Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom made a mere 46 percent of its money internationally, suggesting it as a plausible floor.
If we assume that the movie makes the top of the domestic range the magazine calculated, and 1.5 times as much more globally, we end up with something in the range of $950 million--not much under $1 billion, close enough in fact as to put the $1 billion figure within a reasonably small margin of error. By contrast, if the movie makes $225 million domestically, and relative to that does no better than Temple of Doom overseas, the movie would take in a mere $415 million or so worldwide.
The result is that, on the basis of our having more information, I now suggest $400 million-$1 billion as the relevant range of the film's gross for prediction now--with, where $1-$1.25 billion had seemed far from implausible, and a Solo-like collapse (which anything under $500 million could safely be counted as) had seemed an outside possibility, the two have switched places.*
Again we are talking about a colossal margin, making the difference between a movie that would be respectable if not stellar, and (maybe) bring in a decent profit by the time all is said and done (with home entertainment, etc., topping off the theatrical rentals), and a Solo-caliber disaster. Splitting the difference between the top and bottom of the range we end up with $700 million--while also splitting the difference between decent money-maker and catastrophe. (Disney-Lucasfilm might be able to break even on the film on a $700 million gross, but not do much better than that.)
Do I think the movie more likely to end up over that $700 million line, or below it? My earlier prediction would suggest an expectation of its going over the line (as, again, $750 million-$1 billion was the range I had in mind as the most likely outcome two months ago, and this remains even inside the new range). Still, the backers erred terribly with their decision to premiere the film at Cannes, undermining their own release with the bad reviews, the spoilers that many will find not to their liking, and the diminution of options for getting the public more excited about the film, as a result of which it is easier to picture the situation getting worse than better. The result is that right now the odds of the movie going over or ending up under the line strike me as even--though that could very easily change in the nearly four weeks remaining between now and the film's release.
* Adjusted for inflation Solo could be said to have grossed $474 million in contemporary dollars (rather more than the worst-case scenario discussed here).
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: The Opening Weekend Box Office and the Outlook for the Long-Term Domestic and Worldwide Gross
Earlier this year I wondered if Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse might not outperform every other Marvel superhero movie, or even every other superhero movie, coming out this year.
Three days into its release it its outperforming Guardians of the Galaxy 3 domestically, with, much closer to the high than the low end of Boxoffice Pro's projection ($95-$130 million), over $120 million grossed.
Will the movie maintain its lead over Star-Lord and friends? Certainly its opening, as not just a sequel but perhaps the most anticipated movie of the summer, suggests front-loading. However, the enthusiasm seems real enough, and people seem to be liking what they were seeing--with 96 percent scores from both the "verified" and "all" audiences on Rotten Tomatoes (matched by ratings almost as good from the critics, both "all" and "top" critics giving it a 95 percent rating). The result is that the movie seems to me to still have a fair chance of besting Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (with its gross now standing at $322 million), and in the process just about every superhero movie coming out this year except, possibly, Aquaman 2 (though Across the Spider-Verse besting it too seems within the realm of possibility should the film prove the disappointment some fear).
Still, the margins are for the time being slender enough that the film's hold over the next two weeks will be critical in determining that outcome.
Internationally the debut has been less impressive--the film scoring $88 million so far--which is respectable, but not quite the same level of success. (Indeed, Across the Spider-Verse made a third less in its debut in China than its predecessor did--in current dollars.) It may be too soon to claim too much on that basis, but it may be that enthusiasm for the animated Spiderman feature film franchise did not explode globally the way it has at home. The result is that the film's performance will not hit the highs globally that it does at home, with all that implies for the film's final gross, and its ultimate significance from the standpoint of Hollywood fashion.
Three days into its release it its outperforming Guardians of the Galaxy 3 domestically, with, much closer to the high than the low end of Boxoffice Pro's projection ($95-$130 million), over $120 million grossed.
Will the movie maintain its lead over Star-Lord and friends? Certainly its opening, as not just a sequel but perhaps the most anticipated movie of the summer, suggests front-loading. However, the enthusiasm seems real enough, and people seem to be liking what they were seeing--with 96 percent scores from both the "verified" and "all" audiences on Rotten Tomatoes (matched by ratings almost as good from the critics, both "all" and "top" critics giving it a 95 percent rating). The result is that the movie seems to me to still have a fair chance of besting Guardians of the Galaxy 3 (with its gross now standing at $322 million), and in the process just about every superhero movie coming out this year except, possibly, Aquaman 2 (though Across the Spider-Verse besting it too seems within the realm of possibility should the film prove the disappointment some fear).
Still, the margins are for the time being slender enough that the film's hold over the next two weeks will be critical in determining that outcome.
Internationally the debut has been less impressive--the film scoring $88 million so far--which is respectable, but not quite the same level of success. (Indeed, Across the Spider-Verse made a third less in its debut in China than its predecessor did--in current dollars.) It may be too soon to claim too much on that basis, but it may be that enthusiasm for the animated Spiderman feature film franchise did not explode globally the way it has at home. The result is that the film's performance will not hit the highs globally that it does at home, with all that implies for the film's final gross, and its ultimate significance from the standpoint of Hollywood fashion.
Is The Little Mermaid Playing Like Ant-Man 3?
Ant-Man 3 came out on a four-day holiday weekend, during which it posted respectable numbers, but then went on to an underwhelming gross relative even to the immediately preceding films. There were many dimensions to this--like the film's extremely weak legs (which had it taking in more than half its domestic gross in just those first four days). However, The Little Mermaid, domestically at least, if not opening much differently (it had a $119 million gross, actually less than Ant-Man 3's $120 million), seems bound to make much more money than Ant-Man 3 did, helped by rather stronger legs (the decline in the gross from the first Friday-to-Sunday weekend period to the second just 57 percent, as against Ant-Man 3's 70 percent, bringing its ten-day cume to $186 million, as against Ant-Man's $167 million at the same point).
However, what I am noticing is how the film's domestic underperformance (relatively slight--mainly an underperformance by the super-high standards of Disney's most successful products) is proving much less relevant than the film's international underperformance. Adjusting the numbers for inflation Ant-Man 3's domestic gross was a sixth less than what Ant-Man 2 made, but its international gross was little more than half what its predecessor took in when considered in those terms. Where the domestic gross is concerned The Little Mermaid could easily end up about a sixth down domestically if one treats Aladdin as its most meaningful predecessor--while being down far worse if the film's income in international release is anything to go by. With The Little Mermaid likely to finish up with $300-$350 million domestically, one would have, to go by the performance of its predecessors, taken in $560-$650 million abroad. By contrast the movie would seem likely to finish up with $225-$260 million or so globally--a drop of between 54 and 65 percent from what might have been hoped for just on the basis of this movie's earnings, and worse when one adjusts for inflation (from 68 to 72 percent in that case). Those chewing over the film's success, or failure, as they see it, should attend to that fact.
However, what I am noticing is how the film's domestic underperformance (relatively slight--mainly an underperformance by the super-high standards of Disney's most successful products) is proving much less relevant than the film's international underperformance. Adjusting the numbers for inflation Ant-Man 3's domestic gross was a sixth less than what Ant-Man 2 made, but its international gross was little more than half what its predecessor took in when considered in those terms. Where the domestic gross is concerned The Little Mermaid could easily end up about a sixth down domestically if one treats Aladdin as its most meaningful predecessor--while being down far worse if the film's income in international release is anything to go by. With The Little Mermaid likely to finish up with $300-$350 million domestically, one would have, to go by the performance of its predecessors, taken in $560-$650 million abroad. By contrast the movie would seem likely to finish up with $225-$260 million or so globally--a drop of between 54 and 65 percent from what might have been hoped for just on the basis of this movie's earnings, and worse when one adjusts for inflation (from 68 to 72 percent in that case). Those chewing over the film's success, or failure, as they see it, should attend to that fact.
The Little Mermaid: The Opening Weekend Box Office and the Outlook for the Long-Term Gross
In its second weekend in release Disney's live-action remake of The Little Mermaid grossed over $40 million domestically, raising its total to $186 million--actually a bit better than the Boxoffice Pro folks anticipated this weekend. (They had in mind a figure of $179 million.)
The result is that, given its strong parallel with preceding Disney films, among them the similarly Memorial Day weekend-released Aladdin (which similarly grossed $90 million+ in its first Friday-to-Sunday period, $40 million+ in its second, and $186 million in its first ten days), I still expect it to, if fading a little faster (with a weekend-to-weekend drop of 57 percent, as against Aladdin's 53 percent), break $300 million fairly easily, with a domestic gross north of $350 million not necessarily out of reach (and barring some collapse, not end up much lower than that in the worst case).
Of course, this may not be all that the film's backers and supporters hoped for. (Thanks to inflation Aladdin's $356 million in the summer of 2019 would be more like $420 million+ in the summer of 2023, so that even matching Aladdin would leave the gross one-sixth down relative to the other movie.) Still, it would be far from the disaster some are speaking of--if that was all that mattered. The international market generally delivered 65 percent+ of the global gross for Disney's big-budget live-action remakes of its animated classics in recent years--and the opening weekend raised real doubts about that. (It actually looked like it was going to be the other way around, the domestic market delivering close to two-thirds of the money.)
Has the film's second weekend in play changed that? The movie's overseas gross now stands at $140 million--a good deal less than what it has made at home, and working out to approximately 43 percent of the global total. This is actually about the same figure we had at the end of the first three days (when the movie made about $68 million of the $164 million then grossed, 42 percent of the total). Assuming the pattern continues I would expect The Little Mermaid to finish up with somewhere around $600 million globally on the basis of what we have seen so far, near the lower end of the $600-$700 million range predicted here last week.
The result is that, given its strong parallel with preceding Disney films, among them the similarly Memorial Day weekend-released Aladdin (which similarly grossed $90 million+ in its first Friday-to-Sunday period, $40 million+ in its second, and $186 million in its first ten days), I still expect it to, if fading a little faster (with a weekend-to-weekend drop of 57 percent, as against Aladdin's 53 percent), break $300 million fairly easily, with a domestic gross north of $350 million not necessarily out of reach (and barring some collapse, not end up much lower than that in the worst case).
Of course, this may not be all that the film's backers and supporters hoped for. (Thanks to inflation Aladdin's $356 million in the summer of 2019 would be more like $420 million+ in the summer of 2023, so that even matching Aladdin would leave the gross one-sixth down relative to the other movie.) Still, it would be far from the disaster some are speaking of--if that was all that mattered. The international market generally delivered 65 percent+ of the global gross for Disney's big-budget live-action remakes of its animated classics in recent years--and the opening weekend raised real doubts about that. (It actually looked like it was going to be the other way around, the domestic market delivering close to two-thirds of the money.)
Has the film's second weekend in play changed that? The movie's overseas gross now stands at $140 million--a good deal less than what it has made at home, and working out to approximately 43 percent of the global total. This is actually about the same figure we had at the end of the first three days (when the movie made about $68 million of the $164 million then grossed, 42 percent of the total). Assuming the pattern continues I would expect The Little Mermaid to finish up with somewhere around $600 million globally on the basis of what we have seen so far, near the lower end of the $600-$700 million range predicted here last week.
Friday, June 2, 2023
Will the Bad Reviews Matter to the Prospects of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?
What the critics say about movies does not always matter. Some movies do just fine with the critics against them--like The Super Mario Bros. Movie (this year's first and only billion-dollar grosser).
Is it possible that critical negativity will be similarly irrelevant in the case of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?
I doubt that very much.
Why is that? I can think of three reasons.
1. Critical opinion matters more to adults, and especially older adults, than kids. And Indiana Jones 5 will be counting heavily on the older audience--rather more than a movie starring Mario and Luigi, which every Nintendo-playing kid will want to see even if it is supposed to be totally terrible, and make mom and dad take them.
2. No one expects critics to love a film like The Super Mario Bros. Movie, so that their dislike of the film would simply seem background noise. (Indeed, this may be why the critics were allowed to deviate from their usual function of rating movies "from good to excellent" in this case.) But they have been favorable to Indiana Jones in the past--and their not being favorable this time around matters, the more in as
3. Even those older Indiana Jones fans were likely skeptical about this one, given how many years had passed since the last movie (and how many more since the last really well-liked one) with all that means for "recapturing their magic," the sense that Indiana Jones 4 was both a disappointment and a close to the saga after which it should be left alone, an octogenarian Harrison Ford, a new director, new management at Lucasfilm, an amping up of the CGI (we all know how that affected the response to the later Star Wars films), and hints that the theme and tone would be a break with what had been attractive about the preceding films that might diminish the happy memory of them, among much, much else. It would have been helpful to have critics assuaging that skepticism--but instead their reviews make clear that they not only think it a lackluster film at best, but tell those who had such concerns that the movie is exactly what they were afraid it would be.
The result is that, yes, this is one where critical opinion matters--and is working against the movie rather than for it, with the consequences implicit in the Boxoffice Pro forecast for the film's opening weekend and full domestic runs. (Remember what happened the last time Phoebe Waller-Bridge played sidekick to an iconic Harrison Ford character? Well . . .)
Is it possible that critical negativity will be similarly irrelevant in the case of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny?
I doubt that very much.
Why is that? I can think of three reasons.
1. Critical opinion matters more to adults, and especially older adults, than kids. And Indiana Jones 5 will be counting heavily on the older audience--rather more than a movie starring Mario and Luigi, which every Nintendo-playing kid will want to see even if it is supposed to be totally terrible, and make mom and dad take them.
2. No one expects critics to love a film like The Super Mario Bros. Movie, so that their dislike of the film would simply seem background noise. (Indeed, this may be why the critics were allowed to deviate from their usual function of rating movies "from good to excellent" in this case.) But they have been favorable to Indiana Jones in the past--and their not being favorable this time around matters, the more in as
3. Even those older Indiana Jones fans were likely skeptical about this one, given how many years had passed since the last movie (and how many more since the last really well-liked one) with all that means for "recapturing their magic," the sense that Indiana Jones 4 was both a disappointment and a close to the saga after which it should be left alone, an octogenarian Harrison Ford, a new director, new management at Lucasfilm, an amping up of the CGI (we all know how that affected the response to the later Star Wars films), and hints that the theme and tone would be a break with what had been attractive about the preceding films that might diminish the happy memory of them, among much, much else. It would have been helpful to have critics assuaging that skepticism--but instead their reviews make clear that they not only think it a lackluster film at best, but tell those who had such concerns that the movie is exactly what they were afraid it would be.
The result is that, yes, this is one where critical opinion matters--and is working against the movie rather than for it, with the consequences implicit in the Boxoffice Pro forecast for the film's opening weekend and full domestic runs. (Remember what happened the last time Phoebe Waller-Bridge played sidekick to an iconic Harrison Ford character? Well . . .)
Is Excitement about Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Already Dying Down?
Recently looking at the press coverage of Indiana Jones 5 the newer pieces seemed to consist of, a little on-set gossip apart, the kind of clickbaity material that could be produced at any time, offering nothing new as they did. ("How to Watch the Indiana Jones Movies in Order." "The Indiana Jones Movies Rated From Best to Worst." Etc.)
This is because the film has already had its premiere, and the critics have had their say--a month and a half before the global release of the movie. And those reviews have not been flattering. (This "tomato," according to the folks at RT, is rotten.) In the process they have shared so many spoilers that anyone who wants to can with just a little web-surfing find out pretty much every last little detail of the film down to the "big twist," and the tease of the final shot before the screen goes black and the credits roll. Thus there is no more place for the kind of speculation the press so loves to use as a substitute for actual knowledge and information.
So until the movie hits theaters and non-critics start seeing it and reacting the claqueurs have little to work with.
The bad reviews, the end of the speculation, the flatness of what we are getting instead, so far in advance of the movie's release, seem very, very unlikely to be helpful to the movie's gross--Disney-Lucasfilm gambled on a triumphant reception on the Riviera, and lost that gamble, badly. In the process it would seem to have shot its bolt publicity-wise, leaving it without a basis for recovering from its self-inflicted blow, such that the outlook, already terrible (a Solo-like collapse is no longer an outside possibility but safely inside the Boxoffice Pro's range of expectation) could get worse rather than better over the next month--as it has for so many other Disney releases this summer.
This is because the film has already had its premiere, and the critics have had their say--a month and a half before the global release of the movie. And those reviews have not been flattering. (This "tomato," according to the folks at RT, is rotten.) In the process they have shared so many spoilers that anyone who wants to can with just a little web-surfing find out pretty much every last little detail of the film down to the "big twist," and the tease of the final shot before the screen goes black and the credits roll. Thus there is no more place for the kind of speculation the press so loves to use as a substitute for actual knowledge and information.
So until the movie hits theaters and non-critics start seeing it and reacting the claqueurs have little to work with.
The bad reviews, the end of the speculation, the flatness of what we are getting instead, so far in advance of the movie's release, seem very, very unlikely to be helpful to the movie's gross--Disney-Lucasfilm gambled on a triumphant reception on the Riviera, and lost that gamble, badly. In the process it would seem to have shot its bolt publicity-wise, leaving it without a basis for recovering from its self-inflicted blow, such that the outlook, already terrible (a Solo-like collapse is no longer an outside possibility but safely inside the Boxoffice Pro's range of expectation) could get worse rather than better over the next month--as it has for so many other Disney releases this summer.
The Prospects of The Flash Get Grimmer . . . Again
Last week we heard a great deal about how Boxoffice Pro's forecasts for The Flash (and Elemental) underwent some downgrading.
After that--and with the disappointing prediction for Indiana Jones (a Solo-like performance is well within the range of their expectationsone could easily miss that they revised the film's prospects again, and not upwards. Where last week the "floor" for the film's projected performance of The Flash dropped significantly, now the same has happened with the ceiling too, this falling from $362 million last week to $308 million now--continued erosion amounting to a near one-fifth drop in the two weeks since the first ($375 million) forecast.
The movie's prospects could recover in the next two weeks--though I do not see how. By contrast I can very easily picture interest in the movie continuing to erode, in the process turning the highly touted "best superhero film ever made" into another failure, and reminding us all that Disney's executives have no monopoly on whatever fashionable corporate buzzword refers to the "skill set" of making for financially ruinous flops.
After that--and with the disappointing prediction for Indiana Jones (a Solo-like performance is well within the range of their expectationsone could easily miss that they revised the film's prospects again, and not upwards. Where last week the "floor" for the film's projected performance of The Flash dropped significantly, now the same has happened with the ceiling too, this falling from $362 million last week to $308 million now--continued erosion amounting to a near one-fifth drop in the two weeks since the first ($375 million) forecast.
The movie's prospects could recover in the next two weeks--though I do not see how. By contrast I can very easily picture interest in the movie continuing to erode, in the process turning the highly touted "best superhero film ever made" into another failure, and reminding us all that Disney's executives have no monopoly on whatever fashionable corporate buzzword refers to the "skill set" of making for financially ruinous flops.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: (Box Office Gross Prediction Reviewed: We May Indeed Be Looking at Another Solo)
Back in April I offered my prediction regarding the box office prospects of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (aka Indiana Jones 5). My conclusion, based on the inflation-adjusted performance of the prior films, and the downward trend evident among those performances, was that a fifth Indiana Jones movie could be expected to pull in about $400 million domestically, while making one-and-a-half times that overseas, for a $1 billion take. I also suggested a 25 percent margin of error here given the distance between this level and what past films had made, providing a margin of plausible, not-unprecedented success should it "overperform," and the effects of the considerable headwinds the film faced, with the film's undershooting rather than overshooting the billion-dollar mark--and a Solo-like collapse not to be wholly ruled out.
In short:
$750-$1.25 billion, with <$1 billion more likely than $1 billion<, and Solo-like collapse (e.g. circa $500 million) not out of the question.
Following the film's unfortunate reception in the wake of its Cannes premiere I saw more reason to expect the pessimistic outcome discussed above, and wondered what Boxoffice Pro would say come June 2 (given its routine of releasing its forecasts four weeks before the release date).
Their opening weekend prediction is $81-$111 million--and the domestic run expected to finish up somewhere between $225 and $380 million.
Even the top end of the range is a bit below my base prediction of a domestic gross of $400 million--while the low end of the range is, rather than a quarter down from it, not much better than half that. The result is that the low end of the range we are talking about is a Solo-like collapse scenario, if not worse. (Solo's $214 million back in May 2018 was equal to $258 million in April 2023 dollars.) Should the film make a global gross of 2.5 times its domestic take the result at the bottom end of the range would be some $560 million (not so much better than Solo's inflation-adjusted $474 million)--while I do not rule out the film's underperformance overseas being worse than its domestic underperformance, such that, again, an even lower and more Solo-like gross cannot be wholly ruled out (the more in as nostalgia for this one may be shakier abroad than here).
So at this point: the prospect of the $1 billion gross seems to be ever receding, while the Solo-like crash, which I earlier treated as unlikely but still worth acknowledging looking more and more like a realistic (if depressing) possibility.
In short:
$750-$1.25 billion, with <$1 billion more likely than $1 billion<, and Solo-like collapse (e.g. circa $500 million) not out of the question.
Following the film's unfortunate reception in the wake of its Cannes premiere I saw more reason to expect the pessimistic outcome discussed above, and wondered what Boxoffice Pro would say come June 2 (given its routine of releasing its forecasts four weeks before the release date).
Their opening weekend prediction is $81-$111 million--and the domestic run expected to finish up somewhere between $225 and $380 million.
So at this point: the prospect of the $1 billion gross seems to be ever receding, while the Solo-like crash, which I earlier treated as unlikely but still worth acknowledging looking more and more like a realistic (if depressing) possibility.
Thursday, June 1, 2023
Boxpffice Pro's Weekend Projections (Guardians of the Galaxy 3, The Little Mermaid, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse): Some Thoughts on What They May Mean
Boxoffice Pro has released its projections for this weekend.
Its figures for three films in particular caught my interest, namely those for Guardians of the Galaxy 3, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Boxoffice Pro expects Guardians of the Galaxy 3 to have a $9 million fifth weekend, raising its total gross to the vicinity of $320 million--which seems to me consistent with my guess about the movie's ending up in the vicinity of $330 million domestically from a few weeks ago (if perhaps ending up with more like $335 million than $325 million). All this reaffirms that the film's overseas trajectory, where after the film's opening better than it did in North America it seems to be fading more quickly, will be the key determinant in whether it finishes below $800 million, or gets some way north of it before the close of its run.
The matter of the weekend hold is more complicated in the case of The Little Mermaid. With a 61 percent drop from one Friday-to-Sunday to the next anticipated the projection would seem to be for a quicker fade than what the comparable Aladdin had (another Disney live-action adaptation of an animated movie of theirs from thirty years ago, likewise released Memorial Day weekend, which had only a 53 percent weekend-to-weekend drop). Leaving it running about 4 percent behind Aladdin in current dollars, this still leaves The Little Mermaid on track for a respectable $300 million domestically. However, a very big question mark continues to hang over its second weekend performance in other markets--this always decisive in determining whether a big Disney production is a success financially, though I cannot remember their previously having entailed so much uncertainty as they do with this movie.
Finally Boxoffice Pro has issued an estimate, in about the middle of the range it forecast last week, for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, foreseeing a $115 million opening. Suggestive of a final gross in the $300 million+ range, it confirms what we have heard about this one playing like a regular live-action Marvel movie with all that may imply not just for the franchise, but for the superhero film and the Hollywood blockbuster generally.
Its figures for three films in particular caught my interest, namely those for Guardians of the Galaxy 3, The Little Mermaid and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Boxoffice Pro expects Guardians of the Galaxy 3 to have a $9 million fifth weekend, raising its total gross to the vicinity of $320 million--which seems to me consistent with my guess about the movie's ending up in the vicinity of $330 million domestically from a few weeks ago (if perhaps ending up with more like $335 million than $325 million). All this reaffirms that the film's overseas trajectory, where after the film's opening better than it did in North America it seems to be fading more quickly, will be the key determinant in whether it finishes below $800 million, or gets some way north of it before the close of its run.
The matter of the weekend hold is more complicated in the case of The Little Mermaid. With a 61 percent drop from one Friday-to-Sunday to the next anticipated the projection would seem to be for a quicker fade than what the comparable Aladdin had (another Disney live-action adaptation of an animated movie of theirs from thirty years ago, likewise released Memorial Day weekend, which had only a 53 percent weekend-to-weekend drop). Leaving it running about 4 percent behind Aladdin in current dollars, this still leaves The Little Mermaid on track for a respectable $300 million domestically. However, a very big question mark continues to hang over its second weekend performance in other markets--this always decisive in determining whether a big Disney production is a success financially, though I cannot remember their previously having entailed so much uncertainty as they do with this movie.
Finally Boxoffice Pro has issued an estimate, in about the middle of the range it forecast last week, for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, foreseeing a $115 million opening. Suggestive of a final gross in the $300 million+ range, it confirms what we have heard about this one playing like a regular live-action Marvel movie with all that may imply not just for the franchise, but for the superhero film and the Hollywood blockbuster generally.
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